Pain is the most frequent and disabling complication of herpes zoster. The analysis of pain severity data is complicated by the nonlinear rate of resolution. Further, three distinct phases characterize pain resolution--acute, subacute, and chronic. Using two clinical trial datasets as the bases for analyses, the rates of baseline pain resolution were computed across each of three phases and compared for age, severity of pain at onset, and number of lesions at baseline. The results defined transition points of 24.4 +/- 3.34 for the subacute phase and 110.3 +/- 11.9 days for the chronic phase. The model demonstrated a treatment effect of valiciclovir (VACV) during the subacute phase as compared to acyclovir (ACV) (P = 0.006) and supports effects of age, baseline pain and number lesions on pain cessation rates in the acute phase. This model verifies three phases of zoster pain and delineates the impact of treatment and other factors on the phase-specific rates of pain cessation.

Herpes zoster or shingles is a frequent occurrence in both elderly individuals and immunocompromised hosts. The pain associated with herpes zoster is the most debilitating complication of the disease. It can be described as acute pain and post-herpetic neuralgia or zoster associated pain (ZAP). The latter definition encompasses pain from the onset of disease through its resolution and provides a convenient analytic tool for evaluation of antiviral therapy. A heuristic examination of ZAP historical data suggests the existence of three phases of pain resolution: the acute, subacute and chronic phases. The subacute and chronic phases comprise the post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) stage. Common analytic methods, such as a Kaplan-Meier survival function or a Cox's model, have been used to assess the pain. However, such approaches do not adequately allow for phase comparison. Notably, in the clinical trial setting the comparison of specific treatment effects on the latter stages of pain are of the greatest medical relevance since this is the most debilitating phase of the illness. In order to incorporate the phase-specific information in the modelling of time to cessation of ZAP, we assumed the hazard function was a stepwise constant. Utilizing the full likelihood function, we obtained the maximum likelihood estimate for the transition times (that is, change-points), and other parameters of medical importance. The standard error of the change-point estimates were obtained through a bootstrapping method. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates are also discussed. Hence, the rates of pain resolution across all phases can be examined in order to precisely define the existence of multiple phases. In addition, the covariates effect can be examined across phases and populations, thereby allowing us to translate potential efficacy of a standard therapy to different populations. These results can be utilized in the design of clinical trials or in targeting the outcome for a specific phase while controlling for the effect of other variables.

A meta-analysis of 12 randomized trials (1574 patients) examined herpesvirus and related outcomes following organ transplantation over a range of acyclovir exposures (including valacyclovir). Overall, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection (odds ratio [OR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.57; P<.001), CMV disease (OR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.31-0.54; P<.001), death (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40-0.90; P=.01), opportunistic infection (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53-0.91; P=.009), acute graft rejection (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.86; P<.001), herpes simplex virus disease (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.24; P<.001), and varicella-zoster virus disease (OR, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.01-0.25; P<.001) were significantly reduced. Increased acyclovir exposure influenced more end points: Maximum efficacy resulted from valacyclovir (8 g/day). Increasing acyclovir exposure to that achieved with valacyclovir extends benefits of prophylaxis to include impact on graft rejection and opportunistic infections.

No abstract

In 1994, an international group of interested clinicians and biostatisticians met to discuss the design of clinical trials in herpes zoster. They agreed that trials in herpes zoster should have prospectively agreed definitions of all outcome measures and plans for data analysis. In immunocompetent individuals, in whom pain is the major outcome measure, trials should only include patients over the age of 50 years, and for those recruited within 72 h of rash onset, should be designed to demonstrate superiority of any new therapy over existing antivirals. The primary endpoint should be time to cessation of pain for at least 4 weeks and, for the purposes of statistical analysis of its duration, the pain associated with herpes zoster ought to be considered as a continuum. All other variables, including the incidence of post-herpetic neuralgia and effects upon quality of life should be considered as secondary end-points. Evaluation of treatment effects on primary endpoints should be based upon an intent-totreat (ITT) analysis and subgroup analysis should be used only to support the findings of the ITT analysis. These elements of good study design should be borne in mind in the evaluation of current and future trails of antiviral drugs in herpes zoster.