[1] It is well known that anomalies of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are linked to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that large anomalies of the ISMR are also linked to the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) between states with enhancement/suppression of atmospheric convection over the western part of the equatorial Indian Ocean with suppression/enhancement over the eastern part and associated changes in the anomaly of the zonal wind along the equator. EQUINOO is the atmospheric component of the coupled Indian Ocean Dipole mode. There is a strong relation between the large anomalies of ISMR and a composite index which is a linear combination of the indices for ENSO and EQUINOO with all seasons with large deficits (excess) characterized by small (large) values of the index. However, the variation of ISMR within one standard deviation is more complex and does not appear to be related to the composite index.

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This study unravels the physical link between the weakening of the monsoon circulation and the decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal. Based on the analysis of the terms of Genesis Potential Index, an empirical index to quantify the relative contribution of large scale environmental variables responsible for the modulation of storms, it is shown here that the reduction in the mid-tropospheric relative humidity is the most important reason for the decrease in the number of monsoon depressions. The net reduction of relative humidity over the Bay of Bengal is primarily due to the decrease in the moisture flux convergence, which is attributed to the weakening of the low level jet, a characteristic feature of monsoon circulation. Further, the anomalous moisture convergence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the rapid warming of the sea surface, reduces the moisture advection into the Bay of Bengal and hence adversely affect the genesis/intensification of monsoon depressions. Hence, the reduction in the number of monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal could be one of the manifestations of the differential rates in the observed warming trend of the Indian Ocean basin.

Changes in rainfall affect drinking water, river and surface runoff, soil moisture, groundwater reserve, electricity generation, agriculture production and ultimately the economy of a country. Trends in rainfall, therefore, are important for examining the impact of climate change on water resources for its planning and management. Here, as analysed from 119 years of rainfall measurements at 16 different rain gauge stations across northeast India, a significant change in the rainfall pattern is evident after the year 1973, with a decreasing trend in rainfall of about 0.42 ± 0.024 mm dec−1. The wettest place of the world has shifted from Cherrapunji (CHE) to Mawsynram (MAW) (separated by 15 km) in recent decades, consistent with long-term rainfall changes in the region. The annual mean accumulated rainfall was about 12 550 mm at MAW and 11 963 mm at CHE for the period 1989–2010, as deduced from the available measurements at MAW. The changes in the Indian Ocean temperature have a profound effect on the rainfall in the region, and the contribution from the Arabian Sea temperature and moisture is remarkable in this respect, as analysed with a multivariate regression procedure for the period 1973–2019. The changes in land cover are another important aspect of this shift in rainfall pattern, as we find a noticeable reduction in vegetation area in northeast India in the past two decades, implying the human influence on recent climate change.