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SUMMARYIn electrical power transmission and distribution networks power transformers represent a crucial group of assets both in terms of reliability and investments. In order to safeguard the required quality at acceptable costs, decisions must be based on a reliable forecast of future behaviour. The aim of the present study is to develop an integral transformer lifetime model which involves degradation mechanisms for most relevant subsystems, applicable to individual power transformers and transformer populations. In this paper, we present a predictive model for power transformer reliability which involves three essential ingredients: failure statistics, physical understanding of the degradation process, and actual knowledge of the present condition. The model is based on evaluation of existing literature and past experience on degradation mechanisms, failure modes and diagnostic techniques. The model is illustrated for integral reliability of three transformer failure modes, related to the degradation of the transformer winding insulation, of bushings and of tap-changers.

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Abstract:In this paper the concept of an integral transformer lifetime model is presented. The model provides the best possible prediction of future behaviour given the data available. It treats remaining life in terms of future failure probability, thereby giving better support to the decision taking process than a mere remaining life estimate. The core of the model is a generic description of ageing processes, coupled to a probabilistic approach. The approach presented utilizes various techniques to reduce the uncertainty that is inherent to modelling processes with incomplete knowledge of the operational history. One technique couples the process model to externally measurable quantities; another technique involves a sensitivity analysis, which shows what additional input data gives the most efficient way to improve accuracy. We will illustrate the approach by applying it to a wellknown degradation process: thermal degradation of the transformer winding insulation.

In power cables fast transient signals arise because of partial discharges. These signals propagate to the cable ends where they can be detected for diagnostic purposes. To enable optimal detection sensitivity and to judge their severity the propagation parameters Z c (characteristic impedance) and g (propagation coefficient) need to be known. A three-core power cable with a single metallic earth screen around the assembly of the cores has multiple, coupled propagation modes with corresponding characteristic impedances and propagation coefficients. This paper presents a practical method to measure and analyse the cable parameters. The propagation modes are decoupled into a modal solution. The modal solution is interpreted in terms of convenient propagation modes: a shield-to-phase (SP) propagation mode between conductors and earth screen and two identical phase-to-phase (PP) modes between conductors. The measurement method, based on a pulse response measurement, to determine all transmission line parameters of the SP and PP modes is proposed and tested on a cable sample. The model is validated by predicting the time, shape and amplitude of multiple reflections in all modes resulting from an injected pulse.

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Abstract-This paper presents the remaining lifetime calculation of power transformers paper insulation and consequently of power transformers. The calculations are performed based on two models, which are related to the thermal degradation of the cellulose winding paper insulation: the common IEC loading guide and a paper degradation model. The paper insulation model's prediction can be improved by involving data from furfural analysis. The remaining lifetime is extracted from the fault probability (reliability) of the paper insulation. The two models are brought together, to aid the asset manager in the decision making process. A probabilistic approach is used, which can be coupled to analysis in terms of risks, benefits, costs, and availability by the asset manager.