Hesitantly, but finally, Nigeria joined the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) with the Nigerian President, Mohammadu Buhari, signing the protocol at the African Union Summit in Niamey on July 7, 2019 based on perceived benefits. This study interrogated the purported benefits for Nigeria using standard trade costs between Nigeria and peer countries in Africa. Using a content analytical framework on a dataset by World Development Indicators and World Integrated Trade Solutions, the study found that average tariff rate in Nigeria is very high when compared to that of her major trading rivals in Africa like Ghana, Egypt and South Africa. Furthermore, the study found Nigeria in a comparative disadvantaged position on the ease of doing business in the same setting. Also, Nigeria’s major export commodity is crude oil and lubricants which has little or no market in the continent. Besides, trade-related infrastructure, especially roads and maritime corridors, in Nigeria is poor even by African standards. With these structural problems, ipso facto, Nigeria may not benefit maximally and comparatively in the enlarged continental market envisioned by the AfCFTA agreement. The study therefore, recommended that Nigerian government should continue to maintain the present cautious approach and refrain from making further commitments on the AfCFTA deal. In the meantime, the country should embark on massive infrastructural and trade-related development, improve the ease of doing business and diversify the economy in order to be in vintage position to exploit the potential opportunities offered by the AfCFTA in the medium-to-long term horizon.
The aim of the study was to abstract from the vulnerability theory to predict the likelihood of more people in Nigeria falling into the poverty trap as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study used a parametric technique to obtain estimates of the mean and variance of one-period ahead log-consumption. In doing this, the study hypothesized that estimating household consumption function is important in making inferences about the future and in assessing the vulnerability of household to shocks. The simulation analysis shows that of the 82 percent of the households that are vulnerable to poverty, only about 13 percent are in transitory poverty while the rest are in structural poverty. The implication of this finding is that poverty situation in Nigeria is widespread, entrenched and inter-generational. The current coronavirus pandemic has merely worsened the poverty situation and is not the fundamental cause of poverty in Nigeria. The study recommended among others, that anti-poverty intervention measures of the government, going forward, must be forward-looking and aim largely to increase the productive capacity of the populace instead of merely aiming to alleviate their current state of poverty.
This study investigated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on small businesses, poor individuals and vulnerable households who constitute the majority of customers of microfinance banks (MFBs) in Nigeria. A client survey was conducted by telephone and face to face with a representative sample of clients of MFBs in South West Nigeria for the period from 2019 to 2021. A structured questionnaire, interviews, focus group discussions and participant observation were used to generate the data, while the descriptive statistical analytical method was used to analyze and present the findings. The study reveals that the Covid-19 pandemic and the government-mandated lockdown to curtail the spread have dealt a heavy blow to the incomes of businesses and households of MFB clients in Nigeria. The findings provide practical insights for the Nigerian government and suggests a review of the microfinance scheme to improve its effectiveness.
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