The northeast coast of the United States (US) is a densely-populated region with enhanced sea level rise (SLR) relative to the global mean (Sallenger et al., 2012). Many processes contribute to sea-level change in this region (Little et al., 2019; Woodworth et al., 2019 and references therein). Quantifying the relative contributions of these different processes to past sea-level change can improve the reliability of future SLR predictions.The magnitude of interannual sea-level variations in the northeast US is large compared to the long-term secular trend over the last few decades (Andres et al., 2013). For example, Goddard et al. (2015) reported an extreme seal-level variation during 2009-2010 that was equivalent to approximately 30 years of global-mean SLR. In addition to having large magnitudes, interannual sea-level variations in the region are also coherent from Cape

With global-mean sea level (SL) rising at an accelerating pace (Frederikse et al., 2020;Nerem et al., 2018), many coastal cities around the globe face an increase in extreme SL and coastal flooding events (Moftakhari et al., 2015;Thompson et al., 2021;Wahl et al., 2014). For example, over the last several years, many coastal cities around the United States have started experiencing high-tide flooding (HTF) events. HTF events are floods not primarily caused by large storm systems, but due to high tides and regular variations in atmospheric and oceanic conditions (Sweet et al., 2020). Accurate predictions of such flooding events, or even assessments of coastal flooding probabilities could possibly be a valuable tool for coastal communities to prepare for these events. However, it is challenging to accurately predict such events up to a few months ahead in part because we