Many countries decided to launch car scrapping schemes during the 2009 crisis in order to support their car industries and to boost domestic demand. Owing to the existence of signifi cant international trade links in the automotive sector, there is also a strong theoretical foundation for cross-border eff ects of such scrappage programmes. This paper explores spillovers of the German scheme to the Czech economy on the basis of a close mutual trade link between these two countries and the size of the Czech automotive sector. It is demonstrated that the German programme provided for a signifi cant boost for Czech personal car exports, which were also coupled with increased imports due to large import requirements of the Czech automotive segment. Overall, the contribution of fi rst-round eff ects of the German car scrapping scheme to the Czech real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated to have reached between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points.
LONG TERM TRENDS IN THE CZK DEVELOPMENTThe European integration process has had severe impacts on the development of exchange rates of member states' currencies. For small and open economies which trade large part of both their production input and output in foreign currencies the real exchange rates are of a special importance. This paper looks at the drivers behind the evolution of the real exchange rate of CZK within the European integration process. Beside the decomposition of the general long term trend, several factors of exchange rate fluctuations are depicted. Furthermore the recent halt in long term trend in real CZK appreciation towards EUR is discussed. Finally the study shows statistical simulation of future nominal EUR/CZK development with help of AR(I)MA models employed on different data series. Models' findings picture the gaps between observed and predicted values in the period following the exchange intervention of the Czech National Bank (CNB) from November 2013.
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