a b s t r a c tWe study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. A Monte Carlo study explores the finite sample performance of this procedure and evaluates the forecasting accuracy of models selected by this procedure. Two empirical applications confirm the usefulness of the model selection procedure proposed here for forecasting.
An important aspect of empirical research based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is the choice of the lag order, since all inferences in this model depend on the correct model speci…cation. There have been many studies on how to select the lag order of a nonstationary VAR model subject to cointegration restrictions. In this work, we consider an additional weak-form (WF) restriction of common cyclical features in the model to analyze the appropriate way to select the correct lag order. We use two methodologies: the traditional information criteria (AIC, HQ and SC) and an alternative criterion (IC(p; s)) that selects the lag order p and the rank structure s due to the WF restriction. We use a Monte Carlo simulation in the analysis. The results indicate that the cost of ignoring additional WF restrictions in vector autoregressive modeling can be high, especially when the SC criterion is used.
Lucas(1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-‡edged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era-We gratefully acknowledge the comments of
The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle ‡uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively, We gratefully acknowledge the comments and sugggestions given by an anonymous referee,
There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields) and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months), break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months), we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.
Há uma crença generalizada de que títulos indexados a inflação são uma fonte de informação sobre a inflação futura. Neste artigo, nós estudamos essa questão analisando a relação entre a break-even inflation (diferença entre as taxas nominai e reais) e a inflação futura. A base de dados é extraída de títulos do tesouro brasileiro cobrindo o período de
Sumário: 1. Introdução; 2. O modelo; 3. Dados; 4. Estimação; 5. Resultados; 6. Conclusão.Palavras-chave: produtividade; abertura comercial; mark-up.Código JEL: D24. This paper analyzes the behavior of the Brazilian manufacturing industry after the reforms implemented in the nineties. We examine the impact of trade liberalization on industry productivity and estimate the markup of different industrial sectors before and after trade liberalization. Estimates for markup showed a noncompetitive practices in most sectors. It was also observed jumps of productivity growht in the majority of the industrial sectors after the reduction of the trade restrictions. There is no significant indication of fall in the market power, which could point to the existence of other channels responsible for the productivity increase than competition from abroad.O objetivo deste artigoé analisar o comportamento da indústria de transformação após as reformas implantadas na década de noventa. Verificamos se o processo de abertura gerou aumentos da produtividade média da indústria de transformação. Adicionalmente, estimamos o mark-up de diferentes setores industriais e testamos se este se modifica após a abertura comercial. Estimativas de mark-up revelam práticas não concorrenciais na grande maioria dos setores. Verifica-se também aumento da produtividade média e saltos de produtividade em grande parte dos setores industriais após a redução das barreiras comerciais. Não há indicação significativa de queda no poder de mercado após a abertura comercial, o
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