Background-Transmission and nasopharyngeal colonization are necessary steps en route to invasive pneumococcal or Haemophilus influenzae disease but their patterns vary geographically.

BACKGROUND There are more than 90 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, with varying biologic and epidemiologic properties. Animal studies suggest that carriage induces an acquired immune response that reduces duration of colonization in a non-serotype-specific fashion. METHODS We studied pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage longitudinally in Kenyan children aged 3-59 months, following up positive swabs at days 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32, and then monthly thereafter until two swabs were negative for the original serotype. As previously reported, 1868/2840 (66%) of children swabbed at baseline were positive. We estimated acquisition, clearance and competition parameters for 27 serotypes using a Markov transition model . RESULTS Point estimates of type-specific acquisition rates ranged from 0.00025/day (type 1) to 0.0031/day (type 19F). Point estimates of time to clearance (inverse of type-specific immune clearance rate) ranged from 28 days (type 20) to 124 days (type 6A). For the serotype most resistant to competition (type 19F), acquisition of other serotypes was 52% less likely (95% confidence interval= 37%-63%) than in an uncolonized host. Fitness components (carriage duration, acquisition rate, lack of susceptibility to competition) were positively correlated with each other and with baseline prevalence, and were associated with biologic properties previously shown to associate with serotype. Duration of carriage declined with age for most serotypes. CONCLUSIONS Common S. pneumoniae serotypes appear superior in many dimensions of fitness. Differences in rate of immune clearance are attenuated as children age and become capable of more rapid clearance of the longest-lived serotypes. These findings provide information for comparison after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

BackgroundPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) reduce nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-serotype pneumococci but increase in the carriage of non-vaccine serotypes. We studied the epidemiology of carriage among children 3–59 months old before vaccine introduction in Kilifi, Kenya.MethodsIn a rolling cross-sectional study from October 2006 to December 2008 we approached 3570 healthy children selected at random from the population register of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System and 134 HIV-infected children registered at a specialist clinic. A single nasopharyngeal swab was transported in STGG and cultured on gentamicin blood agar. A single colony of pneumococcus was serotyped by Quellung reaction.ResultsFamilies of 2840 children in the population-based sample and 99 in the HIV-infected sample consented to participate; carriage prevalence was 65.8% (95% CI, 64.0–67.5%) and 76% (95% CI, 66–84%) in the two samples, respectively. Carriage prevalence declined progressively with age from 79% at 6–11 months to 51% at 54–59 months (p<0.0005). Carriage was positively associated with coryza (Odds ratio 2.63, 95%CI 2.12–3.25) and cough (1.55, 95%CI 1.26–1.91) and negatively associated with recent antibiotic use (0.53 95%CI 0.34–0.81). 53 different serotypes were identified and 42% of isolates were of serotypes contained in the 10-valent PCV. Common serotypes declined in prevalence with age while less common serotypes did not.ConclusionCarriage prevalence in children was high, serotypes were diverse, and the majority of strains were of serotypes not represented in the 10-valent PCV. Vaccine introduction in Kenya will provide a natural test of virulence for the many circulating non-vaccine serotypes.

Background. To understand and model the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines at the population level, we need to know the transmission dynamics of individual pneumococcal serotypes. We estimated serotype-specific clearance and acquisition rates of nasopharyngeal colonization among Kenyan children.Methods. Children aged 3–59 months who were identified as carriers in a cross-sectional survey were followed-up approximately 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 days later and monthly thereafter until culture of 2 consecutive swabs yielded an alternative serotype or no pneumococcus. Serotype-specific clearance rates were estimated by exponential regression of interval-censored carriage durations. Duration was estimated as the reciprocal of the clearance rate, and acquisition rates were estimated on the basis of prevalence and duration, assuming an equilibrium state.Results. Of 2840 children sampled between October 2006 and December 2008, 1868 were carriers. The clearance rate was 0.032 episodes/day (95% confidence interval [CI], .030–.034), for a carriage duration of 31.3 days, and the rate varied by serotype (P < .0005). Carriage durations for the 28 serotypes with ≥10 carriers ranged from 6.7 to 50 days. Clearance rates increased with year of age, adjusted for serotype (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.15–1.27). The acquisition rate was 0.061 episodes/day (95% CI, .055–.067), which did not vary with age. Serotype-specific acquisition rates varied from 0.0002 to 0.0022 episodes/day. Serotype-specific acquisition rates correlated with prevalence (r = 0.91; P < .00005) and with acquisition rates measured in a separate study involving 1404 newborns in Kilifi (r = 0.87; P < .00005).Conclusions. The large sample size and short swabbing intervals provide a precise description of the prevalence, duration, and acquisition of carriage of 28 pneumococcal serotypes. In Kilifi, young children experience approximately 8 episodes of carriage per year. The declining prevalence with age is attributable to increasing clearance rates.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) shedding and antibody responses are not fully understood, particularly in relation to underlying medical conditions, clinical manifestations, and mortality. We enrolled MERS-CoV–positive patients at a hospital in Saudi Arabia and periodically collected specimens from multiple sites for real-time reverse transcription PCR and serologic testing. We conducted interviews and chart abstractions to collect clinical, epidemiologic, and laboratory information. We found that diabetes mellitus among survivors was associated with prolonged MERS-CoV RNA detection in the respiratory tract. Among case-patients who died, development of robust neutralizing serum antibody responses during the second and third week of illness was not sufficient for patient recovery or virus clearance. Fever and cough among mildly ill patients typically aligned with RNA detection in the upper respiratory tract; RNA levels peaked during the first week of illness. These findings should be considered in the development of infection control policies, vaccines, and antibody therapeutics.

This study determined the serotype-specific acquisition rates for pneumococcal colonization in a cohort of 1404 newborn infants followed intensively for 3 months. By observing pneumococcal carriage in family members, we were able to determine serotype-specific transmission probabilities between relatives.

Background Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe respiratory illness in humans. Fundamental questions about circulating viruses and transmission routes remain. Methods We assessed routinely collected epidemiologic data for MERS-CoV cases reported in Saudi Arabia during 1 January– 30 June 2015 and conducted a more detailed investigation of cases reported during February 2015. Available respiratory specimens were obtained for sequencing. Results During the study period, 216 MERS-CoV cases were reported. Full genome (n = 17) or spike gene sequences (n = 82) were obtained from 99 individuals. Most sequences (72 of 99 [73%]) formed a discrete, novel recombinant subclade (NRC-2015), which was detected in 6 regions and became predominant by June 2015. No clinical differences were noted between clades. Among 87 cases reported during February 2015, 13 had no recognized risks for secondary acquisition; 12 of these 13 also denied camel contact. Most viruses (8 of 9) from these 13 individuals belonged to NRC-2015. Discussions Our findings document the spread and eventual predominance of NRC-2015 in humans in Saudi Arabia during the first half of 2015. Our identification of cases without recognized risk factors but with similar virus sequences indicates the need for better understanding of risk factors for MERS-CoV transmission.

Methods: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of, and risk factors for, pneumococcal colonisation in adults ≥ 60 years of age (PROSPERO #42016036891). We identified peer-reviewed studies reporting the prevalence of S. pneumoniae colonisation using MEDLINE and EMBASE (until April 2016), excluding studies of acute disease. Participant-level data on risk factors were sought from each study. Findings: Of 2202 studies screened, 29 were analysable: 18 provided participant-level data (representing 6290 participants). Prevalence of detected pneumococcal colonisation was 0-39% by conventional culture methods and 3-23% by molecular methods. In a multivariate analysis, colonisation was higher in persons from nursing facilities compared with the community (odds ratio (OR) 2 •30, 95% CI 1 •26-4 •21 and OR 7 •72, 95% CI 1 •15-51 •85, respectively), in those who were currently smoking (OR 1 •69, 95% CI 1 •12-2 •53) or those who had regular contact with children (OR 1 •93, 95%CI 1 •27-2 •93). Persons living in urban areas had significantly lower carriage prevalence (OR 0 •43, 95%CI 0 •27-0 •70). Interpretation: Overall prevalence of pneumococcal colonisation in older adults was higher than expected but varied by risk factors. Future studies should further explore risk factors for colonisation, to highlight targets for focussed intervention such as pneumococcal vaccination of high-risk groups. Funding: No funding was required.