Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic. Because the severity of the disease is highly variable, predictive models to stratify patients according to their mortality risk are needed. Objective: Our aim was to develop a model able to predict the risk of fatal outcome in patients with COVID-19 that could be used easily at the time of patients' arrival at the hospital. Methods: We constructed a prospective cohort with 611 adult patients in whom COVID-19 was diagnosed between March 10 and April 12, 2020, in a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain. The analysis included 501 patients who had been discharged or had died by April 20, 2020. The capacity of several biomarkers, measured at the beginning of hospitalization, to predict mortality was assessed individually. Those biomarkers that independently contributed to improve mortality prediction were included in a multivariable risk model. Results: High IL-6 level, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, ferritin level, D-dimer level, neutrophil count, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were all predictive of mortality (area under the curve >0.70), as were low albumin level, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, and ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO 2 /FiO 2). A multivariable mortality risk model including the SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, LDH level, IL-6 level, and age was developed and showed high accuracy for the prediction of fatal outcome (area under the curve 0.94). The optimal cutoff reliably classified patients (including patients with no initial respiratory distress) as survivors and nonsurvivors with 0.88 sensitivity and 0.89 specificity. Conclusion: This mortality risk model allows early risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 before the appearance of obvious signs of clinical deterioration, and it can be used as a tool to guide clinical decision making. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2020;146:799-807.)

The immune response type organized against viral infection is determinant in the prognosis of some infections. This work has aimed to study Th polarization in acute COVID-19 and its possible association with the outcome through an observational prospective study. Fifty-eight COVID-19 patients were recruited in the Medicine Department of the hospital “12 de Octubre,” 55 patients remaining after losses to follow-up. Four groups were established according to maximum degree of disease progression. T-helper cell percentages and phenotypes, analyzed by flow cytometer, and serum cytokines levels, analyzed by Luminex, were evaluated when the microbiological diagnosis (acute phase) of the disease was obtained. Our study found a significant reduction of %Th1 and %Th17 cells with higher activated %Th2 cells in the COVID-19 patients compared with reference population. A higher percent of senescent Th2 cells was found in the patients who died than in those who survived. Senescent Th2 cell percentage was an independent risk factor for death (OR: 13.88) accompanied by the numbers of total lymphocytes (OR: 0.15) with an AUC of 0.879. COVID-19 patients showed a profile of pro-inflammatory serum cytokines compared to controls, with higher levels of IL-2, IL-6, IL-15, and IP-10. IL-10 and IL-13 were also elevated in patients compared to controls. Patients who did not survive presented significantly higher levels of IL-15 than those who recovered. No significant differences were observed according to disease progression groups. The study has shown that increased levels of IL-15 and a high Th2 response are associated with a fatal outcome of the disease.

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An early analysis of circulating monocytes may be critical for predicting COVID-19 course and its sequelae. In 131 untreated, acute COVID-19 patients at emergency room arrival, monocytes showed decreased surface molecule expression, including low HLA-DR, in association with an inflammatory cytokine status and limited anti-SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response. Most of these alterations had normalized in post-COVID-19 patients 6 months after discharge. Acute COVID-19 monocytes transcriptome showed upregulation of anti-inflammatory tissue repair genes such as BCL6, AREG and IL-10 and increased accessibility of chromatin. Some of these transcriptomic and epigenetic features still remained in post-COVID-19 monocytes. Importantly, a poorer expression of surface molecules and low IRF1 gene transcription in circulating monocytes at admission defined a COVID-19 patient group with impaired SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response and increased risk of requiring intensive care or dying. An early analysis of monocytes may be useful for COVID-19 patient stratification and for designing innate immunity-focused therapies.