Optical flow estimation can be formulated as an end-toend supervised learning problem, which yields estimates with a superior accuracy-runtime tradeoff compared to alternative methodology. In this paper, we make such networks estimate their local uncertainty about the correctness of their prediction, which is vital information when building decisions on top of the estimations. For the first time we compare several strategies and techniques to estimate uncertainty in a large-scale computer vision task like optical flow estimation. Moreover, we introduce a new network architecture utilizing the Winner-Takes-All loss and show that this can provide complementary hypotheses and uncertainty estimates efficiently with a single forward pass and without the need for sampling or ensembles. Finally, we demonstrate the quality of the different uncertainty estimates, which is clearly above previous confidence measures on optical flow and allows for interactive frame rates. * equal contribution

Future prediction is a fundamental principle of intelligence that helps plan actions and avoid possible dangers. As the future is uncertain to a large extent, modeling the uncertainty and multimodality of the future states is of great relevance. Existing approaches are rather limited in this regard and mostly yield a single hypothesis of the future or, at the best, strongly constrained mixture components that suffer from instabilities in training and mode collapse. In this work, we present an approach that involves the prediction of several samples of the future with a winner-takes-all loss and iterative grouping of samples to multiple modes. Moreover, we discuss how to evaluate predicted multimodal distributions, including the common real scenario, where only a single sample from the ground-truth distribution is available for evaluation. We show on synthetic and real data that the proposed approach triggers good estimates of multimodal distributions and avoids mode collapse.

Abstract. Learning approaches have shown great success in the task of super-resolving an image given a low resolution input. Video superresolution aims for exploiting additionally the information from multiple images. Typically, the images are related via optical flow and consecutive image warping. In this paper, we provide an end-to-end video superresolution network that, in contrast to previous works, includes the estimation of optical flow in the overall network architecture. We analyze the usage of optical flow for video super-resolution and find that common off-the-shelf image warping does not allow video super-resolution to benefit much from optical flow. We rather propose an operation for motion compensation that performs warping from low to high resolution directly. We show that with this network configuration, video superresolution can benefit from optical flow and we obtain state-of-the-art results on the popular test sets. We also show that the processing of whole images rather than independent patches is responsible for a large increase in accuracy.

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