Multinomial-Poisson mixture models reveal unexpected higher density estimates of an Andean threatened bird. Distance sampling and repeated counts are important tools to estimate population density of birds with low detectability. Here we use model based approach to assess the population density of a threatened bird, the Multicolored Tanager (Chlorochrysa nitidissima). We conducted 144 fixed point counts samplings to record all the individuals of the Multicolored Tanager detected by visual and aural observations from different habitats (forest edge, mature, secondary, and riparian forest), during four months in an Important Bird Area of Central Andes of Colombia. We used spatially replicated counts, distance sampling, and multinomial-Poisson mixture models to estimate the population density of the Multicolored Tanager. Accumulated sampling effort was of 576 repetitions in 144 point counts with 96 h of observation. The Multinomial-Poisson mixture model showed the best fit due low variance of density estimations in comparison to the conventional distance sampling and the spatially replicated counts. Results of this model evidenced a remarkable higher density estimates (1.3 -2.05 individuals/ha) of the Multicolored Tanager, particularly in mature and secondary forest, as a result of detection
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