This paper examines the Japanese International Bilateral Trade Flow (JIBTF) in relation to the economic crisis, such as the Tohoku earthquake, and focuses on changes in the Distribution Networks of JIBTF (DNoJ) concerning African countries and Japanese Major Trade Partners (JMTP). The Harmonized System 6-digit level (“total” and product level) panel data from 2001 to 2019 are analyzed by employing the (structural) gravity method. The results of the study find that the Tohoku earthquake affects the DNoJ among Japanese trade partners. Specifically, Japanese trade intention with African markets decreases relatively. In other words, exporting to African countries has a negative interaction effect after 2015. On the contrary, this interaction effect on JMTP comparatively increases; thus, Japan relocates its export to other markets such as JMTP. The Tohoku earthquake shaped the JIBTF to be more integrated with the Asia-Pacific and the EU regions, instead of African markets.

This paper analyzes the impact on an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between African countries and Japan through trade liberalization and reduction in non-tariff barriers. This study aims to investigate sectoral interconnections and participation in the EPA that would facilitate further possible opportunities for Japan-African businesses. The methodology employed is the Computable General Equilibrium model integrated with the Global Trade Analysis Project version 10A Multi-Region Input-Output database. We first modified the GTAP’s structure form to develop a long-run closure under steady-state and thereafter examined the African Continental Free Trade Area-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (AfJEPA) with several EPAs scenarios relying on the quantitative comparison of economic impacts of different technical measurements. As a result, the AfJEPA can provide new possible opportunities for Africa-Japan businesses, such as contributing to the existing African and Japanese mega-regional trade agreements. Specifically, the electronics, petroleum and coal, and chemical, rubber, and plastic industries in Africa would see the highest percent growth. Likewise, the Japanese industries would improve their productivity in the motor vehicles and transport equipment, chemical, rubber, and plastic, and textiles and apparel industries. To sum up, trade facilitation and knowledge transfer, which policymakers can improve concrete action and investment, would considerably stimulate African and Japanese real GDP. Thus, the potential for growth would rely on how deep the integration policy would be.

This study analyzes the production concept of the Value-Added (VA) chain by applying an alternative framework, as this concept is the main driver of the VA embodied in the intermediate export. VA supply chain spillover (upstream and downstream) of the production activities is investigated. The focal point of this study is to extend Global Value Chains (GVC) based on the multilevel and bilateral trade flow. In brief, there are two main contributions of this paper; the first begins with the originality of this work’s theory which reveals the intermediate input journey among sector-country pairs, and the second is to introduce the optimal GVC participation with the knowledge spillover effect regarding vertical (upstream and downstream) integration. In other words, this paper found that different forms of the VA with traveled products (among countries) provide more precise (sectoral/regional) integration and optimal estimation method. This paper relies on constructed Global Trade Analysis Project Multi-Region Input-Output (GTAP-MRIO) and patent panel datasets. As a result of the analysis, if the product crosses the border only twice as the product returns home to its origin country, the export/import coefficient of the sectoral linkages, which boosts VA and then causes double-counting, is about 1.54 % in terms of (single) country-level data. More importantly, with regard to its contributions with the knowledge spillover effect, traveling products among countries as twice or infinity is to contribute by 1.6% or 154%. Lastly, its contribution to VA presents 0.8% to 72%.

The US raised trade war issues under protecting national security against China in July 2018. Likewise, the trade war has spread out across other regions such as India, the EU, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey through an additional tariff on products such as steel and aluminum. Clearly, the uncertainty has shown an increase since this friction created a pessimistic environment for the future world economy and did hurt economic development. Therefore, it has had negative effects for welfare -especially those (low-income consumers) who prefer to buy cheap imported goods. Contrary to protectionism, Japan has signed new FTAs with the EU and the US. In that context, this paper quantitatively examines the Japanese new FTAs under the trade war. It employs the general equilibrium approaches to not only investigate the economic structure of each country trade flow but also address the FTAs and the impacts of the welfare and sectoral value chains of the trade war. Essentially, the paper scenarios depend on the official list of the FTAs and the trade war-related goods. As a result of the FTAs under the trade war, the new Japanese trade agreements have provided some opportunities for its market as well as targeted countries. For instance, the Japanese benefit from the EU-Japan FTA would be $4.11 billion U.S.D. and the EU would gain $768 million U.S.D. within the 15-year. Moreover, the US not only would get a huge advance but also could get back its export market share from Pacific island nations in Japan when Japan would eliminate the tariff on concerned sectors for the US goods. For example, the US and Japan would improve their welfare by $4.09 billion U.S.D. and $398 million U.S.D., respectively through the limited USA-Japan FTA. That is, the US market would comparatively earn much more than Japan. Lastly, those who participate in the FTAs would boost their GDP, welfare, and value-added (productivity). For example, not only would Japan provide some opportunities for its market and then enhance its welfare and GDP, but also the EU and the US would boost their macro variables. However, from the perspective of the other regions/countries, those regions/countries which are not in the trade deal could lose their export market share in Japan, the US, and the UE and would, therefore, have a negative impact on their GDP and welfare.

This paper examines the Japanese International Bilateral Trade Flow (JIBTF) in relation to economic crises, such as the Tohoku earthquake, and focuses on changes in the Distribution Networks of JIBTF (DNoJ) concerning African countries and Japanese Major Trade Partners (JMTP). The Harmonized System 6-digit level (“total” and product level) panel data from 2001 to 2019 are analyzed by employing the (structural) gravity method. First, the results of the study find that the Tohoku earthquake, compared to the 2008 crisis, has a stronger negative impact on the JIBTF and affects the DNoJ among Japanese trade partners. Second, the results prove that Japanese trade intention with African markets decreases relatively. In other words, exporting to African countries has a negative interaction effect after 2015. On the contrary, this interaction effect on JMTP comparatively increases; thus, Japan relocates its export to other markets such as JMTP. The Tohoku earthquake shaped the JIBTF to be more integrated with the Asia-Pacific and the EU regions, instead of African markets.JEL Classification Codes: F10, F14, C23, C24