BackgroundThe global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide.Methods and FindingsWe aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (<6 mo, <1 y, <2 y, <5 y, 5–17 y, and <18 y). We applied this proportion to global estimates of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations among children aged <1 y and <5 y, to obtain the number and per capita rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations by geographic region and socio-economic status.Influenza was associated with 10% (95% CI 8%–11%) of respiratory hospitalizations in children <18 y worldwide, ranging from 5% (95% CI 3%–7%) among children <6 mo to 16% (95% CI 14%–20%) among children 5–17 y. On average, we estimated that influenza results in approximately 374,000 (95% CI 264,000 to 539,000) hospitalizations in children <1 y—of which 228,000 (95% CI 150,000 to 344,000) occur in children <6 mo—and 870,000 (95% CI 610,000 to 1,237,000) hospitalizations in children <5 y annually. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates were more than three times higher in developing countries than in industrialized countries (150/100,000 children/year versus 48/100,000). However, differences in hospitalization practices between settings are an important limitation in interpreting these findings.ConclusionsInfluenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.

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BackgroundDisease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe compared cases (n = 177) and contacts (n = 496) in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases.Conclusions/SignificanceThe study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human-to-human transmission.

The continuing pandemic threat posed by avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses calls for improved insights into their evolution during human infection. We performed whole genome deep sequencing of respiratory specimens from 44 H5N1-infected individuals from Indonesia and found substantial within-host viral diversity. At nearly 30% of genome positions multiple amino acids were observed within or across samples, including positions implicated in aerosol transmission between ferrets. Amino acid variants detected our cohort were often found more frequently in available H5N1 sequences of human than avian isolates. We additionally identified previously unreported amino acid variants and multiple variants that increased in proportion over time in available sequential samples. Given the importance of the polymerase complex for host adaptation, we tested 121 amino acid variants found in the PB2, PB1 and PA subunits for their effects on polymerase activity in human cells. We identified multiple single amino acid variants in all three polymerase subunits that substantially increase polymerase activity including some with effects comparable to that of the widely recognized adaption and virulence marker PB2-E627 K. These results indicate highly dynamic evolutionary processes during human H5N1 virus infection and the potential existence of previously undocumented adaptive pathways.

This project demonstrated that under almost ideal conditions (good hygiene, maintenance of universally high IPV coverage, and corresponding high immunity against polioviruses), no emergence and circulation of VDPV could be detected in a tropical developing country setting.