Abstract. Construction projects play an important role in the economic development of every country. Nevertheless, review of projects' documents indicates that, in most cases, the projects are not nished on assigned budget as scheduled, such that they sometimes loss their economic justi cation and simply fail. Consequently, devising suitable solutions is essential to the prevention of such failures. This is impossible without identifying the foremost causes of failure. In this study, rst, all factors of failure are identi ed using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). FTA as a diagnostic tool allows us to e ciently isolate root causes of failure. To rank these factors, dedicated specialists are requested to assess the risk of each cause using linguistic terms; thereby, relevant calculations are carried out using the Linguistic Weighted Average (LWA). Undeniably, considering the complexity of construction projects and incomplete expert knowledge, judgments must not be made using crisp value conception. Hence, fuzzy theory is utilized to achieve more accurate results. Results indicate that the majority of problems in projects stem from nancial concerns and shortcomings of bidding process. In the last section, an actual case study is used to validate our results.
Purpose Nowadays, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts are being widely used to perform industrial and infrastructure projects because of several reasons like high speed of implementation. However, these contracts are always accompanied by high risks and uncertainties. Thus, selection of the right EPC contractor has significant importance. This paper aims to present a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model for EPC contractor prequalification. Design/methodology/approach First, the EPC contractor prequalification criteria are defined by using literature review and interviewing experts. Second, the weights of criteria are determined by interviewing experts. Then, each EPC contractor is evaluated in each criterion. Finally, fuzzy weighted average (FWA) approach is employed to select the right contractor among potential EPC contractors. Findings The proposed model is prepared as an applicable model for clients to select the right EPC contractors among contractors who want to conduct the project. Originality/value As a lack of applicable model does exist to assign the prequalification of EPC contractors, this study is one of the first research studies which proposed a fuzzy MCDM model for evaluation of EPC contractors. To cope with the uncertainty of the prequalification problem, fuzzy logic has been used. Using fuzzy sets leads to reaching more reliable results. Also, a real case study is provided to explain the proposed model.
Purpose Water and wastewater (WW) projects are gaining attention in Iran because of shortages of water resources. However, these projects are lengthy and they are accompanied by numerous risks, such as lack of sufficient financial resources. Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are taken into account as a constructive approach to deal with the problem of insufficient government funds and they are increasingly being implemented to construct the required infrastructures in different countries. Although WW projects in PPPs can reduce the government’s debt, investors are still uncertain about this approach. Hence, this study aims to identify and evaluate the risk of all parties involved in WW-PPP projects, from the viewpoint of investor. Design/methodology/approach First, the risk factors which are involved in WW projects are identified by interviewing experts and reviewing the literature by means of fault tree analysis (FTA) tool. Second, the probability and effects of the risky factors which are related to specific event are evaluated and analyzed by hybridization of interval fuzzy Type-2 sets (IT2FS) and risk score formulation. Finally, some solutions are proposed to deal with the most challenging risks. Findings Six gate events, namely, risks which are related to investors such as investor’s consultant-related risks, risky conditions from engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors’ point of view, risk factors which public sector takes into account, public sector’s consultant-related risks which public sector’s consultant consider challenging and external factors were defined according to the literature. From FTA tool and by interviewing the experts, 94 basic events were identified. Finally, from hybridization of IT2FSs and risk score formulation, top five risks are determined as “Difficulty of injecting financial resources into the project,” “Fluctuation in inflation rate,” “Poor decision-making process” in public sector, “Difficulty of importing the equipment which are required for the project (such as pumps, grain catchers, garbage collectors, etc.) from other countries” and “Impact of risky conditions in other projects on operation of PPP project.” Originality/value In the absence of a constructive approach for risk identification and a reliable model for evaluating the identified risks in PPP projects, this research project is one of the first research studies which used FTA for identifying risks and hybridization of IT2FSs and risk score formulation for evaluating the risks.
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