Introduction: Two thirds of countries globally are unprepared to respond to a health emergency as per the International Health Regulations ( 2005), with conflict-affected countries like Syria being particularly vulnerable. Political influences on outbreak preparedness, response and reporting may also adversely affect control of SARS-CoV-2 in Syria. Syria reported its first case on 22 March 2020; however, concerns were raised that this was delayed and that underreporting continues. Discussion: Syria's conflict has displaced more than half of its pre-war population, leaving 6.7 million people internally displaced. The consequent overcrowdingwith insufficient water, sanitation and healthcare (including laboratory capacity)could lead to conditions that are ideal for spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Syria. Political changes have led to the formation of at least three health systems within Syria's borders, each with its own governance, capacity and planning. This fragmentation, with little interaction between them, could lead to poor resource allocation and adversely affect control. As such, COVID-19 could overwhelm the health systems (particularly intensive care capacity), leading to high deaths across the population, particularly for the most vulnerable such as detainees. Conclusions: Locally implementable interventions that rapidly build WASH and health system capacity are required across Syria to ensure early detection and management of COVID-19 cases.

Introduction COVID-19 highlighted the importance of meaningful engagement between communities and health authorities. This is particularly challenging in conflict-affected countries such as Syria, where social protection and food security needs can hinder adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccine uptake. This study explored community perspectives of COVID-19 and health authority responses across the three main areas of control in Syria, i.e. Syrian government-controlled areas (GCA), autonomous administration-controlled areas (AACA), and opposition-controlled areas (OCA). Methods We conducted a qualitative study, interviewing 22 purposively-sampled Syrians accessing health services in AACA, GCA, or OCA in 2021 to provide approximately equal representation by governance area and gender. We analysed data thematically using deductive and inductive coding. Findings Interviewees in all areas described how their fears of COVID-19 and willingness to adhere to NPIs decreased as their local COVID-19 epidemics progressed and NPIs disrupted access to household essentials such as work and food. Community-level responses were minimal and ad hoc, so most people focused on personal or household protective efforts and many mentioned relying on their faith for comfort. Misinformation and vaccine hesitancy were common in all areas, linked to lack of transparency from and mistrust of local health authorities and information sources. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has increased health actors’ need to engage with communities to control disease spread, yet most NPIs implemented in Syria were inappropriate and adherence decreased as the pandemic progressed. This was exemplified by lockdowns and requirements to self-isolate, despite precarious reliance on daily wages, no subsidies for lost income, individual self-reliance, and mistrust/weak communication between communities and health authorities. We found minimal community engagement efforts, consisting entirely of informing with no efforts to consult, involve, collaborate, or empower. This contributed to failures of health actors to contextualise interventions in ways that respected community understandings and needs.

IntroductionThe Syrian conflict that started in 2011 has been ongoing for over a decade without an end in sight. Estimates regarding excess mortality and conflict-related disability vary widely, and little field research has been done to address this topic.MethodsA population-based field survey was conducted from 10 to 18 November 2020 in Northwest Syria. Forty-nine clusters were selected using staged sampling based on predefined population distribution maps. Data were collected for the period from 2000 to 2020 and were divided into pre-conflict (2000–2010) and conflict (2011–2020) periods. Mortality rates were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test, and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 1483 households were surveyed, for a population of 12 268 people. The crude mortality rate increased 3.55 times between the two periods (p>0.001). In total, 54.3% of war-related deaths were caused by aerial attacks. Despite the continued increase in mortality rates during the conflict period, most deaths from 2017 onwards were related to non-violent causes. Overall, directly and indirectly, the conflict seems to have caused approximately 874 000 excess deaths. A total of 14.9% of households reported having at least one substantial violence-related disability since 2011.ConclusionThe conflict caused the tripling of mortality rates in Syria. The estimated excess mortality in our study is higher than previous estimates. From 2017 onwards, most conflict-related deaths were due to non-violent causes. There is a high prevalence of violence-related disabilities in the studied communities. Our data could prove useful for health policymakers.

Introduction Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared 9 July 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy. Methods We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modelling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, supported by data from 20 semi-structured interviews with frontline health-workers to help contextualise interpretation of modelling results. Results Modelling suggested that existing low stringency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) minimally affected COVID-19 transmission. Maintaining existing NPIs after Delta variant introduction is predicted to result in a second COVID-19 wave overwhelming hospital capacity and resulting in a 4-fold increased death toll. Simulations with up to 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 predict a second wave is not preventable with current NPIs. However, 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 combined with 50% coverage of mask-wearing and handwashing should reduce the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed below current capacity levels. In the worst-case scenario of a more transmissible and lethal variant emerging by January 2022, a third wave is predicted. Conclusion Total COVID-19 attributable deaths are expected to remain relatively low, due largely to a young population. Given the negative socioeconomic consequences of restrictive NPIs, such as border or school-closures for an already deeply challenged population and their relative ineffectiveness in this context, policymakers and international partners should instead focus on increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage as rapidly as possible and encouraging mask-wearing.