Objective: to model the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus in order to identify changes in its distribution in Mexico.Design/methodology/approach: to select a final model, 2,154 occurrence points were used and MaxEnt with the help of the Kuenm package implemented in Rstudio. It was projected throughout Mexico, using six possible climate change scenarios with a proposed threshold (0.02).Results: a potential present surface of 1,159,335.5 km2 was found, corresponding to 59 % of the territory, indicating a greater suitability in coastal areas including the Gulf of Mexico, the entire Pacific slope, and the Yucatan peninsula. All scenarios show an increase in the potential area of up to 1,423,890.18 km2 in 2050 and 1,537,591.19 km2 in 2070.Study limitations/implications: predictions for 2050 and 2070 will depend on the climatic conditions that take place at the time, so specific studies in each region should be carried out, considering that the species may have adaptability to new climates which would imply constant monitoring. If an increase is observed in the distribution areas, the speciescould affect not only agricultural areas but also forest ecosystems.Findings/conclusions: the projections made for scenarios 2050 and 2070 show an increase in the area of infestation andenvironmental suitability for pink cochineal, mainly in the states of the Pacific watershed, the Yucatan peninsula, and theGulf of Mexico, with these areas being the most vulnerable.
La conservación de los parques nacionales es fundamental dentro de la sustentabilidad de los territorios y salvaguardar los recurso bióticos y abióticos de los ecosistemas, como lo es: es recurso suelo y vegetación. Objetivo: describir el cambio de uso de suelo y vegetación del Parque Nacional El Veladero dentro del Periodo del 2005 al 2021, en la ciudad de Acapulco (México). Metodología: de tipo descriptivo con técnica multitemporal, se usó las bases de datos de las instituciones competentes sobre datos de información geográfica; posterior construcción de mapas temáticos del uso del suelo y vegetación en los periodos 2005 a 20021. Resultados: durante el Periodo 2021 la selva baja subcaducifolia y el bosque encino alcanzaron un decrecimiento, al nivel de la ciudad de Acapulco se identificó el crecimiento de pastizales y antropización del suelo. Se evidencia una alta incidencia de vegetación secundaria lo cual, indica pionerismo por efectos de suelos disturbados. Conclusiones: el crecimiento de los asentamientos humanos son un problema multifactorial para la conservación del Parque Nacional El Veladero. El crecimiento urbano de la ciudad de Acapulco ha cambiado la vocación de los suelos en conservación.
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