Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate-adaptation planning and climate-smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species' ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute-based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: "persist in place" and "shift in space". Persist-in-place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift-in-space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

We studied two components of predator risk assessment in birds. While many species are limited to seeking safety under cover or under ground, some birds can fly away from their predators and escape to trees. If birds in fact ÔfeelÕ safer (e.g. perceive less risk) in trees, we would expect them to tolerate closer approach by a potential terrestrial predator. Another component of safety is at which point the animal detects an approaching threat, which we expected to increase with eye size, assuming eye size is a surrogate for visual acuity. We used the distance birds moved away from an approaching human [flight initiation distance (FID)] as a metric to determine whether birds associated a lower risk of predation by being in trees, and we used the distance at which birds first displayed alert behaviors from an approaching human (alert distance) to determine if birds with larger eyes had higher detection distances. Although some species were affected by tree height, we found no clear pattern that birds assessed themselves to be at a lower risk of predation when they were ‡3 m above the ground compared with being <3 m above ground. In the 10 species for which height had any significant effect on FID, birds ‡3 m off the ground had greater FIDs in six species, but the remaining three species had the opposite response. While we found a significant positive relationship between eye size and alert distance in 23 species, the relationship was not present in a phylogenetic analysis using independent contrasts, which suggests that the apparent relationship was influenced strongly by the association between the studied species. Together, these results suggest that birds do not obviously associate being in a tree with safety, and that variations in visual acuity, per se, cannot be used as a general indicator of differences in alert distances, as previously suggested in the literature.

Climate change is an increasing concern for wildlife managers across the United States and Canada. Because climate change may alter populations and harvest dynamics of key species in the region, midwestern states have identified the effects of climate change on ungulates as a priority research area. We conducted a literature review of projected climate change in the Midwest and the potential effects on whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces). Warmer temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the region favor survival of white-tailed deer. In contrast, moose may become physiologically stressed in response to warming, and increasing deer populations spreading disease will exacerbate the problem. Although there is some uncertainty about exactly how the climate will change, and to what degree, robust projections suggest that deer populations will increase in response to climate change and moose populations will decrease. Managers can begin preparing for these changes by proactively creating management plans that take this into account. Ó

Developing strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage-based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather-induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard.

Global biodiversity is in unprecedented decline and on-the-ground solutions are imperative for conservation. Although there is a large volume of evidence related to climate change effects on wildlife, research on climate adaptation strategies is lagging. To assess the current state of knowledge in climate adaptation, we conducted a comprehensive literature review and evaluated 1,346 peer-reviewed publications for management recommendations designed to address the consequences of climate change on wildlife populations. From 509 publications, we identified 2,306 recommendations and employed both qualitative and quantitative methods for data analysis. Although we found an increase in the volume and diversity of recommendations since 2007, a focus on protected areas (26%, 596 of 2,306 recommendations) and the non-reserve matrix (12%, 276 of 2,306 recommendations) remained prominent in the climate adaptation literature. Common concepts include protected areas, invasive species, ecosystem services, adaptive management, stepping stones, assisted migration, and conservation easements. In contrast, only 1% of recommendations focused on reproduction (n = 26), survival (n = 14), disease (n = 26), or human-wildlife conflict (n = 24). Few recommendations reflected the potential for local-scale management interventions. We demonstrate limited advancement in preparing natural resource managers in climate adaptation at local, management-relevant scales. Additional research is needed to identify and evaluate climate adaptation strategies aimed at reducing the vulnerability of wildlife to contemporary climate change.