Lane change prediction of surrounding vehicles is a key building block of path planning. The focus has been on increasing the accuracy of prediction by posing it purely as a function estimation problem at the cost of model understandability. However, the efficacy of any lane change prediction model can be improved when both corner and failure cases are humanly understandable. We propose an attentionbased recurrent model to tackle both understandability and prediction quality. We also propose metrics which reflect the discomfort felt by the driver. We show encouraging results on a publicly available dataset and proprietary fleet data.
In this work we present a simple end-to-end trainable machine learning system capable of realistically simulating driving experiences. This can be used for verification of self-driving system performance without relying on expensive and time-consuming road testing. In particular, we frame the simulation problem as a Markov Process, leveraging deep neural networks to model both state distribution and transition function. These are trainable directly from the existing raw observations without the need of any handcrafting in the form of plant or kinematic models. All that is needed is a dataset of historical traffic episodes. Our formulation allows the system to construct never seen scenes that unfold realistically reacting to the self-driving car's behaviour. We train our system directly from 1,000 hours of driving logs and measure both realism, reactivity of the simulation as the two key properties of the simulation. At the same time we apply the method to evaluate performance of a recently proposed state-of-the-art ML planning system [1] trained from human driving logs. We discover this planning system is prone to previously unreported causal confusion issues that are difficult to test by non-reactive simulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that directly merges highly realistic data-driven simulations with a closed loop evaluation for self-driving vehicles. We make the data, code, and pre-trained models publicly available to further stimulate simulation development.
We investigate what grade of sensor data is required for training an imitation-learning-based AV planner on human expert demonstration. Machine-learned planners [1] are very hungry for training data, which is usually collected using vehicles equipped with the same sensors used for autonomous operation [1]. This is costly and non-scalable. If cheaper sensors could be used for collection instead, data availability would go up, which is crucial in a field where data volume requirements are large and availability is small. We present experiments using up to 1000 hours worth of expert demonstration and find that training with 10x lower-quality data outperforms 1x AV-grade data in terms of planner performance (see Fig. 1). The important implication of this is that cheaper sensors can indeed be used. This serves to improve data access and democratize the field of imitation-based motion planning. Alongside this, we perform a sensitivity analysis of planner performance as a function of perception range, field-of-view, accuracy, and data volume, and reason about why lower-quality data still provide good planning results.
One of the greatest challenges towards fully autonomous cars is the understanding of complex and dynamic scenes. Such understanding is needed for planning of maneuvers, especially those that are particularly frequent such as lane changes. While in recent years advanced driver-assistance systems have made driving safer and more comfortable, these have mostly focused on car following scenarios, and less on maneuvers involving lane changes. In this work we propose a situation assessment algorithm for classifying driving situations with respect to their suitability for lane changing. For this, we propose a deep learning architecture based on a Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network, which uses Long Short-Term Memory units, and integrates a prediction component in the form of the Intelligent Driver Model. We prove the feasibility of our algorithm on the publicly available NGSIM datasets, where we outperform existing methods.
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