OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission. CONCLUSIONS The multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.
BackgroundTo assess whether circadian patterns of temperature correlate with further values of intracranial pressure (ICP) in severe brain injury treated with hypothermia.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed temperature values in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients treated with hypothermia by endovascular cooling. The circadian patterns of temperature were correlated with the mean ICP across the following day (ICP24).ResultsWe analyzed data from 17 days of monitoring of three subarachnoid hemorrhage patients that underwent aneurysm coiling, sedation and hypothermia due to refractory intracranial hypertension and/or cerebral vasospasm. ICP24 ranged from 11.5 ± 3.1 to 24.2 ± 6.2 mmHg. The ratio between the coefficient of variation of temperature during the nocturnal period (18:00–6:00) and the preceding diurnal period (6:00–18:00) [temperature variability (TV)] ranged from 0.274 to 1.97. Regression analysis showed that TV correlated with ICP24 (Pearson correlation = −0.861, adjusted R square = 0.725, p < 0.001), and that ICP24 = 6 (4–TV) mmHg or, for 80% prediction interval, mmHg. The results indicate that the occurrence of ICP24 higher than 20 mmHg is unlikely after a day with TV ≥1.0.ConclusionsTV correlates with further ICP during hypothermia regardless the strict range that temperature is maintained. Further studies with larger series could clarify whether intracranial hypertension in severe brain injury can be predicted by analysis of oscillation patterns of autonomic parameters across a period of 24 h or its harmonics.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12967-017-1272-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Target temperature management with the new automated infusion device is feasible. Although we provided first data regarding safety, further controlled randomized studies are needed to evaluate the long-time safety, as well as the best indications and timing for this cooling device.
A 20-year-old Swiss male presented at the emergency department with acute onset of febrile temperatures and hemoptysis and a 3-month history of productive cough. An X-ray and CT scan of the chest, sputum samples for acid-fast bacilli, polymerase chain reaction(PCR), and cultures for Mycobacteria revealed pulmonary infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. None of the classical risk factors for tuberculosis were present, but the patient reported regularly smoking a water pipe. Water-pipe smoking poses a serious risk of M. tuberculosis transmission.
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