BackgroundIn preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties’ expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties’ official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1.ResultsOn the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia.ConclusionsThe results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Recent modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today's fossil based systems. In contrast, we discuss four important drivers of trade in such systems.

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Recent global modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today’s fossil fuel energy system. In contrast, we identified four crucial drivers that enable trade of renewable energy carriers. These drivers could make trade remain at current levels or even increase during the transition to an energy system with very high shares of renewables. First, new land-efficient technologies for renewable fuel production become increasingly available and technically allow for long-distance trade in renewables. Second, regional differences in social acceptance and land availability for energy infrastructure support the development of renewable fuel import and export streams. Third, the economics of renewable energy systems, i.e. the different production conditions globally and the high costs of fully renewable regional electricity systems, will create opportunities for spatial arbitrage. Fourth, the reduction of stranded investments in the fossil fuel sector is possible by switching from fossil fuel to renewable fuel trade in exporting regions.The impact of these drivers on trade in energy carriers is currently under-investigated by the global energy research community. Therefore, we call for a major research effort in this field, in particular as trade can redistribute profits and losses of climate change mitigation and may hence support finding new partners in climate change mitigation negotiations.

BackgroundThe availability of land for the installation of wind power turbines is restricted by numerous factors. Besides climatic conditions, the deployment of wind energy is limited by technical, social, economic, and environmental factors. Typically, assessments of land availability for wind power use legal and technical criteria to estimate the potential for wind power expansion. In contrast, we use observed characteristics of wind power generation sites existing in Austria and Denmark to estimate its potential expansion in Czechia. We combined data on wind turbine locations with data on land use, wind speeds, human impact on land, and nature conservation areas.ResultsOur analysis shows that the density of wind power in Austria is variable, but higher on average (4.79 MW km−2) than in Denmark (1.76 MW km−2). Austrian wind turbines have been installed in areas where the human impact on land is mostly higher than the Austrian average, while in Denmark, no difference is observed. Regarding the land use composite, the share of agricultural land on sites with wind turbines is on average much higher (86%), while the share of forest is much lower (7%) in both countries. We identified a maximum potential area in Czechia of 543 km2 with Austrian and 421 km2 with Danish characteristics. When conservatively assuming observed historical power densities, this area translates to 2295 MW and 741 MW of installed wind power capacity, respectively. These results are a magnitude of order lower than the potentials found in existing studies. In a sensitivity analysis, we have examined that the availability of potential sites depends mainly on the population density, the human impact on land, prevailing wind speeds, and the height above sea level.ConclusionsWe estimated available land area for potential wind turbine installations in Czechia using our newly developed methodology based on observed site characteristics of today’s wind power infrastructure in Austria and Denmark. Available land area indicated possible overestimation of wind power capacities proposed in the recent studies on the renewable energy transition. Hence, more rigorous consideration of land availability is required for assessments of potential wind power expansion.