Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on CMIP5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projectionsbefore 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Abstract. Crop water productivity is a key element of water and food security in the world and can be quantified by the water footprint (WF). Previous studies have looked at the spatially explicit distribution of crop WFs, but little is known about their temporal dynamics. Here, we present AquaCrop-Earth@lternatives (ACEA), a new process-based global gridded crop model that can simulate three consumptive WF components: green (WFg), blue from irrigation (WFbi), and blue from capillary rise (WFbc). The model is applied to analyse global maize production in 1986–2016 at 5×5 arcmin spatial resolution. Our results show that over the 2012–2016 period, the global average unit WF of maize is 728.0 m3 t−1 yr−1 (91.2 % WFg, 7.6 % WFbi, and 1.2 % WFbc), with values varying greatly around the world. Regions with high-input agriculture (e.g. Western Europe and Northern America) show small unit WFs and low interannual variability, while low-input regions show opposite outcomes (e.g. Middle and Eastern Africa). From 1986 to 2016, the global average unit WF reduced by a third, mainly due to the historical increase in maize yields. However, due to the rapid expansion of rainfed and irrigated areas, the global WF of maize production increased by half, peaking at 768.3×109 m3 yr−1 in 2016. As many regions still have a high potential in closing yield gaps, unit WFs are likely to reduce further. Simultaneously, humanity's rising demand for food and biofuels may further expand maize areas and hence increase WFs of production. Thus, it is important to address the sustainability and purpose of maize production, especially in those regions where it might endanger ecosystems and human livelihoods.

<p>Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions such as droughts may have an increasing impact on the water demand and the productivity of irrigated agriculture. For the adaptation to changing climate conditions, the value of information about irrigation control strategies, future climate development, and soil conditions for the operation of deficit irrigation systems is evaluated. To treat climate and soil variability within one simulation-optimization framework for irrigation scheduling, we formulated a probabilistic framework that is based on Monte Carlo simulations. The framework can support decisions when full, deficit, and supplemental irrigation strategies are applied. For the analysis, the Deficit Irrigation Toolbox (DIT) is applied for locations in arid and semi-arid climates. It allows the analysis of the impact of information on (i) different scheduling methods (ii) different crop models, (iii) climate variability using recent and future climate scenarios, and (iv) soil variability. The provided results can serve as an easy-to-use support tool for decisions about the value of climate and soil data and/or a cost-benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale.</p>

We propose a methodology to estimate the yield response factor (i.e., the slope of the water-yield function) under local conditions for a given crop, weather, sowing date, and management at each growth stage using AquaCrop-OS. The methodology was applied to three crops (maize, sugar beet, and wheat) and four soil types (clay loam, loam, silty clay loam, and silty loam), considering three levels of bulk density: low, medium, and high. Yields are estimated for different weather and management scenarios using a problem-specific algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply (GET-OPTIS). Our results show a good agreement between benchmarking (mathematical approach) and benchmark (estimated by AquaCrop-OS) using the Normalised Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), allowing us to estimate reliable yield response factors ( K y ) under local conditions and to dispose of the typical simple mathematical approach, which estimates the yield reduction as a result of water scarcity at each growth stage.

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5 to -6% (SSP126) and +1 to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9 shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts — when the change signal emerges from the noise — consistently occurs earlier in the new projections for several main producing regions before 2040. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.