This paper introduces a systematic technology trend monitoring (TTM) methodology based on an analysis of bibliometric data. Among the key premises for developing a methodology are: (1) the increasing number of data sources addressing different phases of the STI development, and thus requiring a more holistic and integrated analysis; (2) the need for more customized clustering approaches particularly for the purpose of identifying trends; and (3) augmenting the policy impact of trends through gathering future-oriented intelligence on emerging developments and potential disruptive changes. Thus, the TTM methodology developed combines and jointly analyzes different datasets to gain intelligence to cover different phases of the technological evolution starting from the 'emergence' of a technology towards 'supporting' and 'solution' applications and more 'practical' business and market-oriented uses. Furthermore, the study presents a new algorithm for data clustering in order to overcome the weaknesses of readily available clusterization tools for the purpose of identifying technology trends. The present study places the TTM activities into a wider policy context to make use of the outcomes for the purpose of Science, Technology and Innovation policy formulation, and R&D strategy making processes. The methodology developed is demonstrated in the domain of ''semantic technologies''.
Purpose Developing methodically sound approaches for defining and analysing measurements of sectoral science and technology (S&T) priorities is a key pre-requisite of a successful and effective state science, technology and innovation management system. This paper aims to present the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities in information and communication technologies (ICTs) based on a system founded on detailed profiles for sectoral critical technologies (CTs) supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia. Design/methodology/approach This analysis of Russia’s ICT S&T priorities was broken down into three periods which tie in with milestones when large-scale changes in ICT were observed: 2002-2006; 2007-2010; 2011-2015. Findings This paper presents the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities in ICTs based on a system founded on detailed and carefully studied profiles for sectoral CTs supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia. An important aspect in support of this approach is regular large-scale processes to update the profiles of sectoral CTs (on average once every five years) and to conduct statistical observations in ICT (once every year). The involvement in this process of updating CTs of large (500 or more) numbers of sectoral experts representing industry leaders, research and educational institutions, core ministries and regulatory bodies guarantees a comprehensive cross-section in researching and profiling CTs in different important areas: science, production and government administration. Originality/value For more than 15 years, the Higher School of Economics has been conducting a range of statistical studies on ICT: the amount of goods and services output in the ICT sector and the level of diffusion and use of ICT in the economy, social sphere and public and private life. The results of these studies are used as an evidence base when defining and updating STI priorities to develop Russia’s ICT industry. This paper presents a retrospective view of the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities from 2002 to the present and discusses the effects of ICT’s transformation in specific changing markets and identifies priority areas for the future.
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