Despite substantial growth in global agricultural production, food and nutritional insecurity is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa. Identification of underutilised indigenous crops with useful food security traits may provide part of the solution. Enset (Ensete ventricosum) is a perennial banana relative with cultivation restricted to southwestern Ethiopia, where high productivity and harvest flexibility enables it to provide a starch staple for ~20 million people. An extensive wild distribution suggests that a much larger region may be climatically suitable for cultivation. Here we use ensemble ecological niche modelling to predict the potential range for enset cultivation within southern and eastern Africa. We find contemporary bioclimatic suitability for a 12-fold range expansion, equating to 21.9% of crop land and 28.4% of the population in the region. Integration of crop wild relative diversity, which has broader climate tolerance, could enable a 19-fold expansion, particularly to dryer and warmer regions. Whilst climate change may cause a 37% – 52% reduction in potential range by 2070, large centres of suitability remain in the Ethiopian Highlands, Lake Victoria region and the Drakensberg Range. We combine our bioclimatic assessment with socioeconomic data to identify priority areas with high population density, seasonal food deficits and predominantly small-scale subsistence agriculture, where integrating enset may be particularly feasible and deliver climate resilience. When incorporating the genetic potential of wild populations, enset cultivation might prove feasible for an additional 87.2 - 111.5 million people, 27.7 – 33 million of which are in Ethiopia outside of enset’s current cultivation range. Finally, we consider explanations why enset cultivation has not expanded historically, and ethical implications of expanding previously underutilised species.
Climate change is projected to trigger strong declines in the potential distribution of major tree species in Europe. While minor natives have moved into the spotlight as alternatives, their ecology is often poorly understood. We use an ensemble species distribution modelling approach on a set of promising native tree species to gain insights into their distribution potential under different climate change scenarios. Moreover, we identify the urgency and potential of altered species distributions in favor of minor natives by comparing the niche dynamics of five major native tree species with the set of six minor natives in a case study. Our models project stark range contractions and range shifts among major tree species, strongly amplified under high emission scenarios. Abies alba, Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica are affected the strongest. While also experiencing range shifts, the minor European natives Castanea sativa, Sorbus torminalis, and Ulmus laevis all considerably expand their range potential across climate change scenarios. Accompanied by Carpinus betulus, with a stable range size, they hold the potential to substantially contribute to sustainably adapting European forest to climate change.
Applying a Regional Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (RIVAS), this study aims to identify local farming system characteristics, their climate change vulnerability and how they are affected by current land use changes. Results show that the assessed farming systems' multifunctionality is essential to rural livelihoods whilst sustaining crop and tree diversity. While dry season crop diversity drives household's sufficiency and capacity to respond to crop failure, medium-low productivity in more than a third of the assessed systems, and soil degradation in cereal fields lessen adaptive capacity. For their contribution to climate resilience diverse and perennial cropping regimes should be promoted and maintained.
Despite substantial growth in global agricultural production, food and nutritional insecurity is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa. Identification of underutilised indigenous crops with useful food security traits may provide part of the solution. Enset (Ensete ventricosum) is a perennial banana relative with cultivation restricted to southwestern Ethiopia, where high productivity and harvest flexibility enables it to provide a starch staple for ~20 million people. An extensive wild distribution suggests that a much larger region may be climatically suitable for cultivation. Here we use ensemble ecological niche modelling to predict the potential range for enset cultivation within southern and eastern Africa. We find contemporary bioclimatic suitability for a 12-fold range expansion, equating to 21.9% of crop land and 28.4% of the population in the region. Integration of crop wild relative diversity, which has broader climate tolerance, could enable a 19-fold expansion, particularly to dryer and warmer regions. Whilst climate change may cause a 37% - 52% reduction in potential range by 2070, large centres of suitability remain in the Ethiopian Highlands, Lake Victoria region and the Drakensberg Range. We combine our bioclimatic assessment with socioeconomic data to identify priority areas with high population density, seasonal food deficits and predominantly small-scale subsistence agriculture, where integrating enset may be particularly feasible and deliver climate resilience. When incorporating the genetic potential of wild populations, enset cultivation might prove feasible for an additional 87.2 - 111.5 million people, 27.7 - 33 million of which are in Ethiopia outside of enset's current cultivation range. Finally, we consider explanations why enset cultivation has not expanded historically, and ethical implications of expanding previously underutilised species.
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