This study investigated the relationship between commodity price shocks and output growth in Sub-Saharan African countries using panel data which covered the period between 2005 and 2017. Data for the study were sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI). Data base of the World Bank, The IMF’S International Financial Statistics (IFM) and Publications of Central Banks of various countries selected. The study employed Generalized Movement Average (GMM) as the estimation technique. Findings from the study showed that positive changes in the prices of export commodities has little positive impact on macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa while negative price change has negative and significant impact on macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan African countries during study period. Based on these findings, the study therefore concludes that the relationship between commodity price shocks and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa is asymmetric. The study recommends that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa should introduce and implement policies to withstand shocks that may come from commodity price shocks such as economic diversification not only in area of agriculture but also in the area of industrialization and manufacturing.
This study examines impact of fiscal deficit on the growth of Nigerian economy using co-integration and error correction. Secondary data were gathered from various sources such as; the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, economic and financial review monthly and annual reports and statement of accounts for various years. The time series property of the data employed, are first to be investigated. This is then followed by testing for co-integrated variables. From the unit root test, the results clearly indicate that the variables are integrated of the same order at first difference. Also, from the multivariate co-integration test, within the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) the results indicate that there are, at most, two co-integrating vectors. This implies that there exists a stable long-run relationship between economic growth and budgeting components. From the study, it was discovered that deficit budget is one of the indicators of macroeconomic instability and significantly discourage human capital accumulation. However, recommendations are made based on the findings among which are that government should set its priorities right, be more committed to budget implementation and to pay more attention to capital expenditure geared towards growth.
This study investigated the macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria between 1985 and 2018. The source of the data for the study were from World Bank Development Indicator, 2020 edition and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The study employed ARDL co-integration approach as estimation technique. Findings from the study showed that inflation rate, real interest rate, real effective exchange rate and world oil price were the major determinants of Nigeria stock market performance during the study period. Based on these findings, the study therefore concludes that both endogeneous and exogeneous macroeconomic variables determine Nigeria stock market performance. Hence, the activities in the global oil market should be monitored in formulating policies to enhance stock market performance in Nigeria.
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