The experience of the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has shown the relevance and necessity of understanding the problems of moral and psychological support in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in modern conditions. The problem of constant misinformation of the population, the spread of propaganda and the implementation of destructive psychological influence in the interests of the enemy is very sensitive. The simplest tool for distribution misinformation is the Internet (its easy access and wide popularity). The goal of the article is to develop a methodology for monitoring negative psychological influences in online media. The basis of develop methodology is the build a mathematical model using a 4th order polynomial trendline. To determine the number of text messages that were simultaneously processed in statistical analysis, the Hurst exponent was applied. Indicators of negative psychological influences in text messages are selected. Statistical observation is carried out at the expense of a database with text messages from online media. The coefficients of the polynomial regression model are calculated using the least squares method for using a spreadsheet processor Microsoft Excel, or by solving a system of linear algebraic equations using Cramer's method. It has been proved that the developed mathematical model for monitoring negative psychological influences is adequate over the time interval under study. Due to the developed methodology for monitoring negative psychological influences in online media, it is possible to mathematically describe the process of the influence of text messages on a person. The mathematical model underlying the methodology can be used not only at the monitoring stage, but also at the stage of counteracting destructive psychological effects, as well as for the implementation of preventive measures to prevent the spread of such effects by taking into account the frequency and common ways of spreading negative psychological effects in text messages online media. It should be noted that the developed methodology can be used to automate online media monitoring in order to timely identify information threats to military command and control bodies and the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the context of ensuring the information security of the state.
The introduction of information and communication technologies in all spheres of human activity, including in the military, causes the emergence of a wide range of threats to information security. Among them, special place is occupied by threats of information and psychological character, which manifest themselves in the form of negative information influences on the psychological state. Such influences are realized with the help of information messages that are perceived by the person, and after processing their consciousness, they adjust their worldview: affirm or change beliefs, attitudes, principles. Particularly dangerous are the changes in the military serving in the Allied Forces in eastern Ukraine. The constant access of the personnel to the media creates the conditions for the realization of such threats. A set of destructive messages can lead to prolonged deviations from the normal psychological state of the serviceman and, as a consequence, impede the performance of functional duties. The urgent task is to develop an approach to the organization of protection against such influence.This paper analyzes the experience gained during the monitoring of the information space and describes the main methods for creating and disseminating materials with a negative information impact on the Armed Forces personnel. An approach to determining the level of negative information influence in the media is offered, which allows to quantify aspects of information confrontation and creates a theoretical basis for the development of automated complexes of support and decision making regarding the protection of personnel from negative information influence. Recommendations are given to ensure the protection of military personnel from destructive influence and formulate a general approach to its organization. Therefore, in order to achieve this goal, the tasks are solved in the following: analysis of ways and methods of implementation of negative information influences by the Russian Federation through mass media; study of experience in counteracting such influence by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine; developing approaches to increase the effectiveness of such activities; making recommendations on the organization of protection of personnel involved in deterring Russia's aggression. The results obtained can be used in information operations to implement information space security measures.
In the work the mathematical apparatus for forecasting the effectiveness of fire damage was proposed in assessing the enemy’s ability to disarm the troop management with taking into account the experience of the antiterrorist operation and the Joint Forces Operation in order to provide national security and defense, repression and deterrence of armed aggression of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The question of estimating the predicted degree of disorganization of the troops management by the damage for management system, that the enemy causes to its elements using the means of radio-electronic suppression and fire damage, is researched. The assessment of the loss is based on the relative proportion of the lost (suppressed) objects from their total number in the management system. Depending on the size and nature of the damage to the totality of radio-electronic objects and means, the state of the system can be estimated by the appropriate degree of disorganization: disturbance, difficulty or disruption of management. A probabilistic approach is proposed for evaluating the loss of a set of radio-electronic objects and means. The degree of disorganization due to fire damage is estimated using the model of defeat of the objects of the troops management system. The model of fire damage is created with the following assumptions: a group object is given by a set of elementary objects; the defeat of the group object is determined according to the degree of damage to the elements or the damage to the critical element; elementary objects are homogeneous with the exception of critical elements; the distribution of the point of the fall of the lesion may be described by the relevant law. On the basis of the analysis of the structure of objects and possible damage, a mathematical apparatus for evaluating the suitability of elementary objects for performing their tasks in conditions of fire damage was proposed based on indicators: destruction, suppression and disruption. A model of defeat of a single (elementary) and a group military object was developed. The model takes into account: the composition of the group object, its size, the size of elementary objects; the law of the distribution of the point of falling of the means of defeat by the area; the presence of critical elementary objects; characteristics of fire damage.
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