In the sudan savanna of northern Nigeria, with its semi-arid climate, the ability to determine effectively or predict the start of actual productive rains cannot be overemphasized. Several methods exist for calculating the date of onset of the rains that may be taken as the start of the growing season. Five methods currently in use, which are relatively easy to apply on a large scale, were selected for comparison. One is a traditional technique (Ramadan method), two use accumulated rainfall totals (Walter's and Sivakumar's methods), and two use rainfall-evapotranspiration relationships (Kowal's and Benoit's methods). For the period 1961-91, the traditional technique performed most poorly. Walter's method gave quite early onsets and Sivakumar's method gave very late onsets, thereby seriously shortening the growing season. Kowal's and Benoit's determinations fell most often in between the results of Walter's and Sivakumar's methods in their performance. However, although generally to a lesser extent than the other methods, they are still significantly affected by false starts. To avoid incorrectly predicting the growing season's onset as far as possible, but to prevent an unacceptable shortening of the growing season, a combination of Kowal's and Sivakumar's criteria was used to develop an improved technique. This proved to work well for determining the onset date in the study area. However, because some false starts remain when using average onset dates, it is suggested that an operational advisory team should be constituted by the government. This team would be responsible for calculating onset dates in any year, on-line for the ongoing season, in a participatory approach with farmers, and for disseminating such dates to the farmers. This could be done for any place for which the appropriate data can be made available. In the future, improved climate prediction skill may replace the classical probabilistic approaches presently suffering from increasing rainfall variabilities.
This paper aimed at examining local peoples’ perceptions on climate variability and change and strategies adopted in combating the impacts of the changes in Dutsin-Ma Local Government Area of Katsina State. A total of 242 questionnaires were administered to households’ heads in the eleven wards of the Local Government Area. Descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution, percentage and mean scores were used in data analysis. The result revealed that majority of the local people have a very good knowledge of climate variability and change in terms of higher temperature, higher rainfall intensity and variability, and the occurrence of extreme weather events such as flood and drought. Findings also revealed that community disobeying God, deforestation, bush burning, combustion of fossil fuel and pollution were the major causes of climate variability and change as perceived by the respondents. The most significant impacts of climate variability and change as perceived by the local people were decline in crop yields, decline in forest resources, water shortages and decrease in soil fertility. These impacts have resulted to rural-urban migration in the area. Sustainable adaptation strategies adopted by the local people are water harvesting, the use of fertilizer/animals dung to improve crop yield, irrigation agriculture, planting of crop varieties and drought resistant crops. It is recommended that strategies for combating impacts of climate variability and change should take into account the traditional and religious beliefs of the people; and there is need to educate the local people to appreciate the scientific basis of climate variability and change.
This study examinesmeteorological drought and temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Nigeria under increasing global warming. Rainfall data of 60 years (1961 to 2020) and temperature of 40 years (1981–2020) for nine stations were used to quantify drought occurrences as well as the pattern of temperature. The Bhalme and Mooley Drought Index (BMDI) and Student’s t-test were used to indicate if changes have occurred in the amount of rainfall and temperature (increase or decrease) over space and time in the study region. The BMDI was used because it is simple and able to depict historically documented droughts better than other indices. The student’s t-test was used to determine if the sub-period means of the series have altered significantly over time. Results show that the spatial and temporal occurrence and duration varied from one sub-area to another. Also, its intensity was mainly from mild to moderate. Results also show a consistent alternation between drought and wet years over the study period. The trend of temperature shows a tendency towards decreasing temperature during the period of study although it was not significant. The study concludes that the study region experiences climate variability that may well be part of global climate change.
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