Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has affected millions of lives worldwide. On 29th April 2020, Malaysia reported more than 5,000 COVID-19 cases; the second highest in the Southeast Asian region after Singapore. Recently, a forecasting model was developed to measure and predict COVID-19 cases in Malaysia on daily basis for the next 10 days using previously-confirmed cases. A Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF-SSA) is proposed by establishing L and ET parameters via several tests. The advantage of using this forecasting model is it would discriminate noise in a time series trend and produce significant forecasting results. The RF-SSA model assessment was based on the official COVID-19 data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) to predict daily confirmed cases between 30th April and 31st May, 2020. These results revealed that parameter L = 5 (T/20) for the RF-SSA model was indeed suitable for short-time series outbreak data, while the appropriate number of eigentriples was integral as it influenced the forecasting results. Evidently, the RF-SSA had over-forecasted the cases by 0.36%. This signifies the competence of RF-SSA in predicting the impending number of COVID-19 cases. Nonetheless, an enhanced RF-SSA algorithm should be developed for higher effectivity of capturing any extreme data changes.
In recent years, climate change has demonstrated the volatility of unexpected events such as typhoons, flooding, and tsunamis that affect people, ecosystems and economies. As a result, the importance of predicting future climate has become even direr. The statistical downscaling approach was introduced as a solution to provide high-resolution climate projections. An effective statistical downscaling scheme aimed to be developed in this study is a two-phase machine learning technique for daily rainfall projection in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The proposed approaches will counter the emerging issues. First, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on a symmetric correlation matrix is applied in order to rectify the issue of selecting predictors for a two-phase supervised model and help reduce the dimension of the supervised model. Secondly, two-phase machine learning techniques are introduced with a predictor selection mechanism. The first phase is a classification using Support Vector Classification (SVC) that determines dry and wet days. Subsequently, regression estimates the amount of rainfall based on the frequency of wet days using Support Vector Regression (SVR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Relevant Vector Machines (RVMs). The comparison between hybridization models’ outcomes reveals that the hybrid of SVC and RVM reproduces the most reasonable daily rainfall prediction and considers high-precipitation extremes. The hybridization model indicates an improvement in predicting climate change predictions by establishing a relationship between the predictand and predictors.
Since the Movement Control Order (MCO) was adopted, all the universities have implemented and modified the principle of online learning and teaching in consequence of Covid-19. This situation has relatively affected the students’ academic performance. Therefore, this paper employs the regression method in Support Vector Machine (SVM) to investigate the prediction of students’ academic performance in online learning during the Covid-19 pandemic. The data was collected from undergraduate students of the Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Sultan Idris Education University (UPSI). Students’ Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) during online learning indicates their academic performance. The algorithm of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as a machine learning was employed to construct a prediction model of students’ academic performance. , Two parameters, namely C (cost) and epsilon of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm should be identified first prior to further analysis. The best parameter C (cost) and epsilon in SVM regression are 4 and 0.8. The parameters then were used for four kernels, i.e., radial basis function kernel, linear kernel, polynomial kernel, and sigmoid kernel. from the findings, the finest type of kernel is the radial basis function kernel, with the lowest support vector value and the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which are 27 and 0.2557. Based on the research, the results show that the pattern of prediction of students’ academic performance is similar to the current CGPA. Therefore, Support Vector Machine regression can predict students’ academic performance.
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