We consider prediction-model evaluation in the context of marketing-campaign planning. In order to evaluate and compare models with specific campaign objectives in mind, we need to concentrate our attention on the appropriate evaluation-criteria. These should portray the model's ability to score accurately and to identify the relevant target population. In this paper we discuss some applicable model-evaluation and selection criteria, their relevance for campaign planning, their robustness under changing population distributions, and their employment when constructing confidence intervals. We illustrate our results with a case study based on our experience from several projects.
While CD4+ T-cell counts in the blood of HIV-infected individuals gradually decrease, there is a parallel increase in the number of blood CD8+ T cells such that the total number of T cells remains essentially constant for several years (1). The basis and significance of this phenomenon are not known. Based on a statistical analysis of longitudinal T-cell counts from the Transfusion Safety Study (TSS) database and on theoretical considerations, we evaluate several alternative models, including versions of the "blind homeostasis" (BH) hypothesis (1-3). At issue is the nature of the homeostatic regulation of lymphocytes and its apparent failure in HIV infection. The most plausible explanation for the conservation of total blood T-cell numbers while subset ratios change is that CD4+ and CD8+ T cells compete for a limited access to the blood compartment. Such interaction between the subsets implies, in particular, that changes in the number of CD4+ T cells occurring in other tissues cannot be reliably inferred from those observed in the blood. We reiterate propositions made earlier (4) that much of the apparent "depletion" of CD4+ lymphocytes during the asymptomatic phase of HIV infection may be attributed to redistribution between the tissues and the blood compartment.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.