The tourism industry in Malaysia has been growing significantly over the years. Tourism has been one of the major donors to Malaysia’s economy. Based on the report from the Department of Statistics, a total of domestic visitors in Malaysia were recorded at about 221.3 million in 2018 with an increase of 7.7% alongside a higher record in visitor arrivals and tourism expenditure. This study aims to make a comparison between two methods, which are Fuzzy Time Series and Holt-Winter in forecasting the number of tourist arrival in Langkawi based on the monthly tourist arrival data from January 2015 to December 2019. Both models were generated using Microsoft Excel in obtaining the forecast value. The Mean Square Error (MSE) has been calculated in this study to get the best model by looking at the lowest value. The result found that Holt-Winter has the lowest value that is 713524285 compared to the Fuzzy Time Series with a value of 2625517469. Thus, the Holt-Winter model is the best method and has been used to forecast the tourist arrival for the next 2 years. The forecast value for the years 2020 and 2021 are displayed by month.
Every country has its own stock market exchange, which is a platform to raise capital and is a place where shares of listed company are traded. Bursa Malaysia is a stock exchange of Malaysia and it is previously known as Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. All over the world, including Malaysia, it is common for investors or traders to face some loss due to wrong investment decisions. According to the conventional financial theory, there are so many reasons that can lead to bad investment decisions. One of them is confirmation bias where an investor has a preconceived notion about an investment without a good information and knowledge. In this paper, we study the best way to provide good information for investors in helping them make the right decisions and not to fall prey to this behavioral miscue. Two models for forecasting stock prices data are employed, namely, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). This study used a secondary data consisting of AirAsia Berhad daily stock prices for a duration of 20 weeks from January 2015 to May 2015. The 16-weeks data from January to April 2015 was used to forecast the stock prices for the 4-weeks of May 2015. The results showed that FTS has the lowest values of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Mean Square Error (MSE), which are 1.11% and MYR20.0011, respectively. For comparison, for GBM, the MAPE is 1.53% and the MSE is MYR2 0.0017. The findings imply that the FTS model provides a more accurate forecast of stock prices.
Keywords: Forecasted values, stock market, Fuzzy Time Series, Geometric Brownian Motion
This study aims to explore the use of mobile application in enhancing the communication between parents and teachers during the Covid-19 pandemic. The mobile application is specifically designed for Parent Teacher Associations (PTA), named PTA-MA that enable them to manage their activities and hence, communicate with members. Minimum Viable Product (MVP) method was used for the development of prototype of PTA-MA application. Two online surveys using Google Form were conducted in several schools. First survey is to get PTA feedbacks on the willingness to use as well as perceived usefulness of the PTA-MA application. Positive feedbacks from the preliminary survey on the willingness to use had triggered the researcher to develop a prototype of mobile application to be used by PTA to enhance their communication especially during pandemic. As a result, a prototype of PTA-MA was produced. Second online survey was conducted to obtain the PTA's views on the prototype built. The survey showed significant results that at least 80.6% of the respondents are confident that the PTA-MA application is able to further enhance the communication among PTA members and they are also agreed to support the use of PTA-MA by PTA. Therefore, the development and implementation of PTA-MA needs to be treated as a special project because it significantly impacts the schools, PTAs and to the Ministry of Education Malaysia towards the transformation of the education system as stated in the Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013-2025.
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