With advancing age, the prevalence of clinically relevant thyroid nodules increases, whereas the risk that such nodules are malignant decreases. Nonetheless, when thyroid cancer is detected in older individuals, a higher-risk histological phenotype is more likely. These data provide insight into the clinical paradox that confronts physicians managing this common illness.

In addition to predicting cancer prevalence, the TBS also imparts important prognostic information about cancer type, variant, and risk of recurrence. These data extend the utility of TBS classification by fostering an improved understanding of the risk posed by any confirmed malignancy.

An initially benign FNA confers negligable mortality risk during long-term follow-up despite a low risk of identifying several such nodules as thyroid cancer. Because such malignancies appear adequately treated despite detection at a mean 4.5 years after falsely benign cytology, these data support a recommendation for repeat thyroid nodule evaluation 2-4 years after the initial benign FNA.

BackgroundOncogenic mutations are common in thyroid cancers. While the frequently detected RAS-oncogene mutations have been studied for diagnostic use in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules, no investigation has studied such mutations in an unselected population of thyroid nodules. No long-term study of RAS-positive thyroid nodules has been performed.MethodsWe performed a prospective, blinded cohort study in 362 consecutive patients presenting with clinically relevant (>1 cm) thyroid nodules. Fine needle aspiration cytology and mutational testing were obtained for all nodules. Post-operative histopathology was obtained for malignant or indeterminate nodules, and benign nodules were sonographically followed. Histopathological features were compared between RAS- and BRAF-positive malignancies. RAS-positive benign nodules were analyzed for growth or cellular change from prior aspirations.ResultsOverall, 17 of 362 nodules were RAS-positive. Nine separate nodules were BRAF-positive, of which eight underwent surgery and all proved malignant (100 %). Out of the 17 RAS-positive nodules, ten underwent surgery, of which eight proved malignant (47 %). All RAS-positive malignancies were low risk – all follicular variants of papillary carcinoma, without extrathyroidal extension, metastases, or lymphovascular invasion. RAS-positivity was associated with malignancy in younger patients (P = 0.028). Of the nine RAS-positive benign nodules, five had long-term prospective sonographic follow-up (mean 8.3 years) showing no growth or signs of malignancy. Four of these nodules also had previous aspirations (mean 5.8 years prior), all with similar benign results.ConclusionsWhile RAS-oncogene mutations increase malignancy risk, these data demonstrate a low-risk phenotype for most RAS-positive cancers. Furthermore, cytologically benign, yet RAS-positive nodules behave in an indolent fashion over years. RAS-positivity alone should therefore not dictate clinical decisions.