This paper adopts a structured positive approach to explaining the valuation practices of financial analysts by studying the valuation methodologies contained in 104 analysts' reports from international investment banks for 26 large U.K.-listed companies drawn from the beverages, electronics, and pharmaceuticals sectors. We provide a descriptive analysis of the use of alternative valuation models focusing on the value-relevant attributes that analysts seek to forecast and the methodologies analysts use to convert the forecasts into estimates of firm value. We postulate and test a number of hypotheses relating to how the valuation practices of analysts vary systematically across industrial sectors. We find that: (1) the use of valuation by comparatives is higher in the beverages sector than in electronics or pharmaceuticals; (2) analysts typically choose either a PE model or an explicit multiperiod DCF valuation model as their dominant valuation model; (3) none of the analysts use the price to cash flow as their dominant valuation model; and (4) contrary to our expectations, some analysts who construct explicit multiperiod valuation models still adopt a comparative valuation model as their preferred model. We believe the study's findings are important for increasing our understanding of the valuation practices of financial analysts. The study also provides a basis for further research that tests a richer and more det ailed set of hypotheses.
This study explores the market response to achieving analyst earnings expectations, distinguishing between expectations achieved through earnings forecast guidance and earnings management. We consider three earnings management tools: real earnings management, working capital accruals management, and classification shifting. Analysis indicates that UK firms use earnings forecast guidance and classification shifting to achieve analyst expectations. The market does not reward firms that achieve expectations through forecast guidance, and achievers that classification shift receive a lower market reward than genuine achievers. The market response aligns with information on future profitability and rational pricing tests show that there is no overall mispricing of achievers. Evidence of stock price incentives to engage in earnings forecast guidance is found only within more opportunistic downward forecast revisions mainly driven by high market growth expectations.
We investigate whether the choice of valuation model affects the forecast accuracy of the target prices that investment analysts issue in their equity research reports, controlling for factors that influence this choice. We examine 490 equity research reports from international investment houses for 94 UK-listed firms published over the period July 2002-June 2004. We use four measures of accuracy: (i) whether the target price is met during the 12-month forecast horizon (met_in); (ii) whether the target price is met on the last day of the 12-month forecast horizon (met_end); (iii) the absolute forecast error (abs_err); and (iv) the forecast error of target prices that are not met at the end of the 12-month forecast horizon (miss_err). Based on met_in and abs_err, price-to-earnings (PE) outperform discounted cash flow (DCF) models, while based on met_end and miss_err the difference in valuation model performance is insignificant. However, after controlling for variables that capture the difficulty of the valuation task, the performance of DCF models improves in all specifications and, based on miss_err, they outperform PE models. These findings are robust to standard controls for selection bias.
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