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Stated-preference research supports $17.2B in protections

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Previous research on the relationships between oil tanker characteristics and casualty events suggests that vessel flag, size, and age may be important determinants of casualty rates. These studies have been bivariate primarily, examining one factor at a time, providing uncertain results given the interdependent nature of the factors affecting tanker casualties, such as age and size. This paper describes a multivariate analysis of the relative effects of vessel flag, size and age on the casualty rates of oil tankers for the period 1969 to 1978. Among the findings discussed are: (1) vessels operating under certain flags of registry have much higher casualty rates than others in the world fleet; 2) smaller vessels exhibit higher casualty rates than larger ones; and 3) older vessels appear to be no more accident prone than newer vessels. With few exceptions, these basic findings are invariant with respect to accident cause and accident location.