1. The crisis facing Africa's elephant populations is a notorious example of ongoing wildlife declines caused by illegal harvesting. Targeted conservation interventions require detailed knowledge about changes in population sizes and the effect of illegal activities. However, accurately quantifying poaching intensity is a difficult task: commonly calculated from ranger-based carcassencounter data, the proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE) is a function of poaching and background mortality. Hence, at constant poaching intensity, PIKE decreases with increasing natural mortality and also with hunting, management interventions, and other anthropogenically induced deaths. Natural mortality is often more difficult to quantify with accuracy than mortality due to illegal killing, as elephants that die naturally are more likely to be missed than those taken by poachers. In recent analyses, constant background mortality rates were assumed. Yet, for example climate-driven fluctuations in natural mortality, if not quantified and accounted for, may lead to biased estimates of poaching intensity. 2. Varying background mortality rates can be accounted for in the analysis of PIKE, but this requires near-complete counts of natural and managementrelated deaths and hunting records. Carefully developed population models, which simulate population dynamics and demographic changes while accounting for variation in environmental conditions and management strategies, are alternatives. However, successful calibration of such models requires integrating comprehensive demographic data.