The PALIAR index is a reliable tool for predicting mortality in patients with advanced, nononcologic chronic diseases.
Introduction: There are studies that evaluate the association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure (HF) but there is little evidence regarding the prognosis of this comorbidity in older patients admitted for acute HF. In addition, little attention has been given to the extracardiac and extrapulmonary symptoms presented by patients with HF and COPD in more advanced stages. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of COPD on mortality in elderly patients with acute and advanced HF and the clinical manifestations and management from a palliative point of view. Methods: The EPICTER study (“Epidemiological survey of advanced heart failure”) is a cross-sectional, multicenter project that consecutively collected patients admitted for HF in 74 Spanish hospitals. Demographic, clinical, treatment, organ-dependent terminal criteria (NYHA III-IV, LVEF <20%, intractable angina, HF despite optimal treatment), and general terminal criteria (estimated survival <6 months, patient/family acceptance of palliative approach, and one of the following: evidence of HF progression, multiple Emergency Room visits or admissions in the last six months, 10% weight loss in the last six months, and functional impairment) were collected. Terminal HF was considered if the patient met at least one organ-dependent criterion and all the general criteria. Both groups (HF with COPD and without COPD) were compared. A Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate the presence of COPD on the vital prognosis of patients with HF. Results: A total of 3100 patients were included of which 812 had COPD. In the COPD group, dyspnea and anxiety were more frequently observed (86.2% vs. 75.3%, p = 0.001 and 35.4% vs. 31.2%, p = 0.043, respectively). In patients with a history of COPD, presentation of HF was in the form of acute pulmonary edema (21% vs. 14.4% in patients without COPD, p = 0.0001). Patients with COPD more frequently suffered from advanced HF (28.9% vs. 19.4%; p < 0.001). Consultation with the hospital palliative care service during admission was more frequent when patients with HF presented with associated COPD (94% vs. 6.8%; p = 0.036). In-hospital and six-month follow-up mortality was 36.5% in patients with COPD vs. 30.7% in patients without COPD, p = 0.005. The mean number of hospital admissions during follow-up was higher in patients with HF and COPD than in those with isolated HF (0.63 ± 0.98 vs. 0.51 ± 0.84; p < 0.002). Survival analysis showed that patients with a history of COPD had fewer survival days during follow-up than those without COPD (log Rank chi-squared 4.895 and p = 0.027). Conclusions: patients with HF and COPD had more severe symptoms (dyspnea and anxiety) and also a worse prognosis than patients without COPD. However, the prognosis of patients admitted to our setting is poor and many patients with HF and COPD may not receive the assessment and palliative care support they need. Palliative care is necessary in chronic non-oncologic diseases, especially in multipathologic and symptom-intensive patients. This is a clinical care aspect to be improved and evaluated in future research studies.
On-line el xxx Palabras clave: Paciente pluripatológico Enfermedad crónica avanzada Mortalidad Poder de discriminación Estudio de cohortes r e s u m e nFundamento y objetivo: Comparar la rentabilidad de los índices PALIAR y PROFUND para predecir la mortalidad en pacientes pluripatológicos con enfermedad crónica no oncológica en fase avanzada. Material y métodos: Estudio de cohortes, prospectivo y multicéntrico con pacientes pluripatológicos con enfermedades crónicas no oncológicas en fase avanzada ingresados en departamentos de medicina interna entre el 1 de julio y el 31 de diciembre de 2014. Se recogieron datos de edad, género, categorías de pluripatología, enfermedad avanzada, comorbilidad, valoración funcional y cognitiva, síntomas de enfermedad terminal, necesidad de cuidador, ingresos en los 3 y 12 meses previos, número de fármacos, y se calcularon los índices PROFUND y PALIAR. Tras un seguimiento durante 12 meses la mortalidad se valoró con las curvas de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier y la rentabilidad de los índices con las curvas ROC. Resultados: Se incluyeron 213 pacientes con edad media 83 (7) años y 106 (49,8%) eran mujeres. La mortalidad a los 6 meses fue del 40,4% y a los 12 del 50,2%. Los pacientes fallecidos puntuaban más alto en los índices PROFUND [11,2(4,2) frente a 8,5(3,9); p < 0,001] y PALIAR [6,7 (4,6) frente a 3,6 (3,1); p < 0,001]. La capacidad discriminativa del índice PALIAR a los 6 meses (área bajo la curva 0,734; IC95% 0,665-0,803) fue superior a la del índice PROFUND y no hubo diferencias a los 12 meses. Conclusiones: En pacientes pluripatológicos con enfermedad crónica en fase avanzada el índice PALIAR tiene un rendimiento mayor que el índice PROFUND para predecir la mortalidad a los 6 meses y similar a los 12 meses.
Aims Estimating the prognosis in heart failure (HF) is important to decide when to refer to palliative care (PC). Our objective was to develop a tool to identify the probability of death within 6 months in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods and results A total of 2848 patients admitted with HF in 74 Spanish hospitals were prospectively included and followed for 6 months. Each factor independently associated with death in the derivation cohort (60% of the sample) was assigned a prognostic weight, and a risk score was calculated. The accuracy of the score was verified in the validation cohort. The characteristics of the population were as follows: advanced age (mean 78 years), equal representation of men and women, significant comorbidity, and predominance of HF with preserved ejection fraction. During follow-up, 753 patients (26%) died. Seven independent predictors of mortality were identified: age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, New York Heart Association class III-IV, chronic kidney disease, estimated survival of the patient less than 6 months, and acceptance of a palliative approach by the family or the patient. The area under the ROC curve for 6 month death was 0.74 for the derivation and 0.68 for the validation cohort. The model showed good calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow test, P value 0.11). The 6 month death rates in the score groups ranged from 6% (low risk) to 54% (very high risk). Conclusions The EPICTER score, developed from a prospective and unselected cohort, is a bedside and easy-to-use tool that could help to identify high-risk patients requiring PC.
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