SummaryBackgroundAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process.MethodsWe generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995–2012), the Netherlands (2006–12), Italy (1995–2004), Scotland (1989–98), and England (2002–09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register.FindingsWe identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r2=0·95, Ireland r2=0·99, Italy r2=0·95, the Netherlands r2=0·99, and Scotland r2=0·97; overall r2=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5–5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3–4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5–5·5).InterpretationA linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues.FundingUK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, University, and Research in Italy; the Motor Neurone Disease Association of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland; and the European Commission (Seventh Framework Programme).

BackgroundAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and usually fatal neurodegenerative disease. Survival from diagnosis varies considerably. Several prognostic factors are known, including site of onset (bulbar or limb), age at symptom onset, delay from onset to diagnosis and the use of riluzole and non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Clinicians and patients would benefit from a practical way of using these factors to provide an individualised prognosis.Methods575 consecutive patients with incident ALS from a population-based registry in South-East England register for ALS (SEALS) were studied. Their survival was modelled as a two-step process: the time from diagnosis to respiratory muscle involvement, followed by the time from respiratory involvement to death. The effects of predictor variables were assessed separately for each time interval.FindingsYounger age at symptom onset, longer delay from onset to diagnosis and riluzole use were associated with slower progression to respiratory involvement, and NIV use was associated with lower mortality after respiratory involvement, each with a clinically significant effect size. Riluzole may have a greater effect in younger patients and those with longer delay to diagnosis. A patient's survival time has a roughly 50% chance of falling between half and twice the predicted median.InterpretationA simple and clinically applicable graphical method of predicting an individual patient's survival from diagnosis is presented. The model should be validated in an independent cohort, and extended to include other important prognostic factors.

The filamentous and unicellular algae of the class Zygnematophyceae are the closest algal relatives of land plants. Inferring the properties of the last common ancestor shared by these algae and land plants allows us to identify decisive traits that enabled the conquest of land by plants. We sequenced four genomes of filamentous Zygnematophyceae (three strains of Zygnema circumcarinatum and one strain of Z. cylindricum) and generated chromosome-scale assemblies for all strains of the emerging model system Z. circumcarinatum. Comparative genomic analyses reveal expanded genes for signaling cascades, environmental response, and intracellular trafficking that we associate with multicellularity. Gene family analyses suggest that Zygnematophyceae share all the major enzymes with land plants for cell wall polysaccharide synthesis, degradation, and modifications; most of the enzymes for cell wall innovations, especially for polysaccharide backbone synthesis, were gained more than 700 million years ago. In Zygnematophyceae, these enzyme families expanded, forming co-expressed modules. Transcriptomic profiling of over 19 growth conditions combined with co-expression network analyses uncover cohorts of genes that unite environmental signaling with multicellular developmental programs. Our data shed light on a molecular chassis that balances environmental response and growth modulation across more than 600 million years of streptophyte evolution.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, motor neuron disease) is a neurodegenerative disorder of motor neurons leading to paralysis and eventual death by respiratory failure. Median survival is 2-3 years. Susceptibility genes, environmental triggers and disease related prognostic factors have been established, but environmental effects on survival are yet to be investigated. We analysed survival in the South-East England ALS register (SEALS register). Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to investigate survival in London, coastal and rural areas according to postcode at diagnosis. Results showed that there were 933 cases of ALS identified in the catchment area during the study period (1994-January 2012). Cox regression demonstrated a highly significant model for survival with significant protective variables: coastal residency, riluzole use and younger age at onset. Significantly worse survival was associated with London residency, older age as well as definite and probable El Escorial classifications. In conclusion, these findings suggest the possibility of an environmental effect on survival in ALS.

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and low intellectual/language abilities are often omitted from experimental studies because of the challenges of testing these individuals. It is vital to develop appropriate and accessible tasks so that this significant part of the spectrum is not neglected. The theory of mind (ToM) has been extensively assessed in ASD, predominantly in relatively high-functioning individuals with reasonable language skills. This study aims to assess the ToM abilities of a sample of 132 participants with intellectual disability (ID) with and without ASD, matched in verbal mental age (VMA) and chronological age, using a naturalistic and nonverbal deception task: the Penny Hiding Game (PHG). The relationship between performance on the PHG and everyday adaptation was also studied. The PHG proved accessible to most participants, suggesting its suitability for use with individuals with low cognitive skills, attentional problems, and limited language. The ASD + ID group showed significantly more PHG errors, and fewer tricks, than the ID group. PHG performance correlated with Vineland adaptation scores for both groups. VMA was a major predictor of passing the task in both groups, and participants with ASD + ID required, on average, 2 years higher VMA than those with ID only, to achieve the same level of PHG success. VMA moderated the association between PHG performance and real-life social skills for the ASD + ID more than the ID group, suggesting that severely impaired individuals with ASD may rely on verbal ability to overcome their social difficulties, whereas individuals with ID alone may use more intuitive social understanding both in the PHG and everyday situations.