Aim An assessment method that can precisely represent human‐vectored long‐distance dispersals (HVLDD) is currently in need for the effective management of invasive species. Here, we focussed on HVLDD happening along roads and proposed a path‐finding algorithm as a more precise dispersal assessment tool than the most widely used Euclidean distance method by using pine wilt disease (PWD) as a case study. Location Busan Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea. Methods A path‐finding algorithm, which calculates distances by considering the spatial distribution of road networks, was tested for its effectiveness in estimating dispersal distances of HVLDD events. To this end, annual HVLDD cases were classified from entire PWD occurrence data from 2016 to 2019, and their dispersal distances were calculated using the path‐finding algorithm and the Euclidean distance method. We constructed potential dispersal ranges based on the occurrence points in 2016, 2017 and 2018 using the respective year's mean dispersal distance for both methods, and their performances in accounting for each subsequent year's HVLDD cases were compared to determine which method calculated more precise distances. The information on which road class contributed more to dispersal occurrences and distances was analysed as well using the proposed algorithm. Results The potential dispersal ranges of the path‐finding algorithm accounted for more future anthropogenic infection cases than the ones that used the Euclidean distance method, validating its higher functionality. It also revealed that most HVLDDs started and ended on small roads, and large roads constituted the majority of the total dispersal length. Main conclusions The path‐finding algorithm has proven to be a more effective dispersal assessment method for HVLDD events. It can help design effective control strategies. Thus, we encourage using the path‐finding algorithm for the dispersal assessment of invasive species that move along road networks, and for the development of more powerful HVLDD prediction models.
Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.
According to the guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol, species are now recognized as ‘resources’ and owned by each country, thereby emphasizing the significance of biological resources and the importance of the continuous efforts made to systematically manage them. Despite these efforts, climate change, which influences climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, is expected to negatively impact the struggle for conservation of biological resources by affecting species’ habitats. We aimed to devise methodologies that could be utilized for the management of biological resources, especially valuable tree species, that are experiencing difficulties due to climate change. First, changes in habitat of the northern-region plant Needle fir (Abies holophylla) due to of climate change were estimated using the BIOMOD2 package in R under the RCP8.5 scenario. Second, the time period of management was estimated based on the change in habitat area over time. It is expected that 30% of the current habitat of A. holophylla will be lost by 2030 and 50% will be lost by 2042. Third, four management zones (maintenance, reduction, dispersal, and non-habitat areas) were derived by comparing habitats according to the period of management required. In this case, we compared the present and the time point at which 30% habitat loss (2030) is expected to occur. After that, the management steps that can be taken for each management zone were suggested. Our results show the impact of climate change, especially change in Bio1 (annual mean temperature) and Bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), on species distribution patterns and have potential applicability in biological resource management. We have specified the suitable point of time, area, and direction of management in this study, which will contribute to climate change management planning and policy-making. By doing so, we hope that when a management policy on biological resources is applied, by dividing the four management zones, policymakers will be able to apply a cost-efficient policy.
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