Combined efforts of farmers, rice scientists, extension personnel and Government of Bangladesh have yielded clean rice growth rate of 0.34 million ton (MT) year -1 during 2009-10 to 2013-14 in the country. In 2014-15, the country acquired a rice surplus of about 2 MT. However, maintaining the current surplus of rice in the coming decades is a great challenge. Authentic estimation of future rice requirement and future resource availability would guide to way forward. This paper presents rice vision for Bangladesh leading to 2050 and beyond. In this study, secondary data from different government-owned statistics and research institutes were collected, analyzed and synthesized to develop models and/or model parameters to generate outputs such as future population, rice production and rice requirement. Population of Bangladesh will reach 215.4 million in 2050, when 44.6 MT of clean rice will be required. With the pace of rice-production-increase in the last five years, production can reach 47.2 MT, having a surplus of 2.6 MT in 2050. The study sets 2.6 MT as the target for clean rice surplus every year leading to 2050 and beyond. Several hurdles, such as increasing population, decreasing resources and increasing climate vulnerability, can hinder achieving the target. Three major interventions-accelerating genetic gain, minimizing yield gap and curtailing adoption lag-are proposed to break the barriers to achieve the target. Major challenges to implement the interventions include shrinking net cropped area, decreasing availability of irrigation water and increasing pressure on soil fertility. Smart technology such as, location specific variety, profitable cropping sequences, innovative cultural management, and mechanization coupled with smart dissemination using multiple means would ease production barriers. We recommend a number of measures, such as, guaranteeing a minimum cropped area, accelerating the rate of genetic gain in varietal development and intensifying collaboration among the stakeholders to reduce adoption lag of newly released promising rice varieties, to achieve the rice vision of Bangladesh leading to 2050 and beyond.
Built on deep-rooted political and cultural heritage, ‘rice security’ is the foundation of ‘food security’ in Bangladesh. The country has been in production-surplus of rice in the current decade feeding over 165 million people. This on-going ‘selfsufficiency momentum’ would require to maintain to meet increased demand from growing future population. On developmental side, Bangladesh is placed among the three of the world’s fastest growing economies in the years through to 2050. Rice sector would need to match with the pace of this growth. In addition, agriculture sector, that includes rice, is to double the productivity as the government commits to meet the SDG goal 2.3.1. This study addresses those issues through scoping increased rice production and productivity in Bangladesh, developing a plan of work (POW) on translating the scope and designing implementation plans and actions, incorporating efficiency, resilience, stability and sustainability issues, to achieve the POW. The study has used brainstorming, and rigorous analysis to achieve the objectives. The productivity has been explained in terms of yield- and labour-productivity. The developed three-winged ‘doubling rice productivity (DRP)’ framework directs yield enhancement and production accumulation in unexplored spaces (Wing-1); increased adoption of mechanization to impact on labour productivity (Wing-2), and improvements in nutritional quality and rice-based product diversity, and stabilizing the farmgate price (Wing-3). Analyses show, from the baseline figure of 35.29 MT in 2015, rice production in the country can be raised to 46.90 MT in 2030, 54.09 MT in 2040 and 60.85 MT in 2050 with combined contributions of three pillars – yield improvements by enhanced varietal potential (Pillar 1), reduction in existing yield gap (Pillar 2) and production increase by exploring unexplored spaces for rice (Pillar 3) of Wing-1 of the DRP. This production will produce a surplus of 6.50, 10.29 and 13.65 MT in 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively, over the production target (40.40, 43.80 and 47.20 MT in 2030 and 2050, respectively). Results further reveal that through scale-appropriate mechanization backed up by estimated fair price, labour productivity in rice will be doubled by 2029, meeting the SDG 2.3.1. Good number of released varieties have been identified to have specific nutritional trait, and value adding quality. We have emphasized on much needed actions on demand-driven research for varietal development and field-adoptable management, mechanization for transplanting and harvesting operations, accommodation of rice in unexplored spaces, farmer-based speedy seed multiplication and dissemination system, establishment of commission for agricultural costs and prices, input buffer stock terminals for managing production risk, long-term storage and export of surplus production, and research-publicity-market development for rice-based products through public-private partnership. It is concluded that efficiency, resilience and sustainability around the three wings of DRP in the rice production systems to be ensured to achieve the rice production, productivity and labour use estimates. Bangladesh Rice J. 24 (2): 1-47, 2021
Risk is an inevitable feature of agriculture globally, and it might increase over time in the future. The study assesses the risk of rice cultivation in the three seasons under current and future conditions. The software programme @Risk version 7.6 was used to simulate the risk-return trade of rice cultivation in the three seasons in Bangladesh. The likelihood of having negative net income for the Aus (90%) and Boro (80%) rice was very high under the current market and environmental conditions. Besides, the chance of obtaining negative net income was notable for T. Aman (33%). Both the yield and price variation significantly contributed to the fluctuation of returns of rice production. However, with the current seasonal variation in yield, the probability of having negative net income for paddy rice was very low under the farmers’ expected price (Aman: 22.5 BDT kg-1, Boro: 25 BDT kg-1 and Aus: 24 BDT kg-1). The result indicates that only access to the fair price of the rough rice can ensure the economic sustainability of the rice production. Likewise, chances of having a negative net income of paddy rice in 2030 will be zero under the extrapolated yield (Aman: 5.3 kg ha-1, Boro: 6.3 kg ha-1 and Aus: 4.8 kg ha-1) and price (Aman: 31.75 BDT kg-1, Boro: 30.75 BDT kg-1 and Aus: 30 BDT kg-1). The findings indicate that rice cultivation in the three seasons will be economically sustainable, subject to achieving the expected genetic gain and ensuring access to the projected price. Thus, policy supports are needed to ensure farmers' access to a fair price, improve management practice, and strengthen research to enhance genetic gain for sustainable rice farming under future conditions. Bangladesh Rice J. 25 (1) : 101-110, 2021
Strengthening the early warning system to forecast extreme weather and provide action-oriented advisories may increase rice yield as well as enhance the income of the farmers through minimizing risks and losses, if proper use of the generated advisory is ensured. This study assessed the importance and impact of weather forecast based advisory service (WFBAS) in Bangladesh. Literature review and field experimental data were used in a sensitivity analysis to show the impact of WFBAS on rice production. Available literatures suggested that the weather based advisory service would enhance rice yield by around 6.7-10%, but the experimental findings revealed that yield advantage could be 21.48%. Besides, the adoption of this technology would reduce the cost of cultivation by 12%, whereas the aggregate impact would increase the farmers’ profit by 25%. In the sensitivity study, we considered the production and price of Aman and Boro seasons (actual and government procured prices for 2018-19) and assumed only 6.70% yield increase with 5% farmers adopting of WFBAS. As such, additional 0.172 million tons will be added to the national rough rice production and thus the nation will be benefited by 3143 million Bangladeshi taka (BDT) at the actual farmgate price and it would be 4478 million BDT at the government procured price. The return on one BDT investment in this technology would be 51-73 BDT based on actual and procured prices. The projection showed enhenced production of the rough rice at 0.119 million tons and 0.214 million tons by 2025 and 2030, on which the additional return would be BDT 2441 and BDT 5223 million at the projected actual farmgate price and BDT 3522 and BDT 6979 million at the projected Government procured price, respectively. Hence, the successful implementation of the WFBAS will help to develop resilient rice farming communities, minimize livelihood risk, reduce the cost of production, utilize resources efficienty, and enable the farmers to take maximum benefit from favorable weather conditions through improved agricultural extension services. Finally, the enhanced yield and loss reduction will help to achieve the target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) by 2030 through sustaining rice production in Bangladesh under changing climate. Bangladesh Rice J. 25 (1) : 51-74, 2021
Bangladesh needs an average rough rice yield of 9.11 t ha-1 by 2050 which can not be achieved equally across all the geographic regions since the country has various ‘rice types’ with varying yield potentials. This paper focuses on strategic innovations for reaching the yield target by refining rice types. Based on rice ecosystems and the pressing needs, we divided rice areas of Bangladesh in 17 different types. We estimated year-wise land areas and allocated achievable yield targets for each of the rice types. Finally, we compared the target yields and the yields of top-yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh by 2020 across the rice types to understand the current status of our varietal improvement programmes. We sorted out how much improvement is needed in each rice types. Among the rice types, cold-tolerant (Northern and Western) was sorted out as the most potential area of rice yield improvement where rice varieties will be released having a yield advantage of 4.04 t ha-1 by 2050. The chronology of next priority areas for high yielding variety development and their target yield advantages in t ha-1 are saline Boro (4.03), Favourable Boro (long duration) (4), cold-tolerant (Haor) (3.83), tidal submergence (3.8), Healthier rice (Boro) (3.58), Favourable Boro (short duration) (3.33), Healthier rice (Aman) (3.3), Favourable Aman (3.23), Flash flood (3.09), upland rice (2.89), Saline Aman (2.8), Healthier rice (Aus) (2.53), Premium quality rice (2.53), drought (2.38), T. Aus (2.05) and deepwater. Combined genetic interventions like population improvement through cyclic breeding, genomic selection, marker-assisted selection, genome editing, genetic transformation, germplasm utilization through genome-wide association study and phenomics, and development of super hybrid rice are being used in the country to attain yield target for different rice types. Bangladesh Rice J. 24 (2): 67-82, 2021
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