Although the systematic utility of ecological niche modeling is generally well known (e.g., concerning the recognition and discovery of areas of endemism for biogeographic analyses), there has been little discussion of applications concerning species delimitation, and to date, no empirical evaluation has been conducted. However, ecological niche modeling can provide compelling evidence for allopatry between populations, and can also detect divergent ecological niches between candidate species. Here we present results for two taxonomically problematic groups of Phelsuma day geckos from Madagascar, where we integrate ecological niche modeling with mitochondrial DNA and morphological data to evaluate species limits. Despite relatively modest levels of genetic and morphological divergence, for both species groups we find divergent ecological niches between closely related species and parapatric ecological niche models. Niche models based on the new species limits provide a better fit to the known distribution than models based upon the combined (lumped) species limits. Based on these results, we elevate three subspecies of Phelsuma madagascariensis to species rank and describe a new species of Phelsuma from the P. dubia species group. Our phylogeny continues to support a major endemic radiation of Phelsuma in Madagascar, with dispersals to Pemba Island and the Mascarene Islands. We conclude that ecological niche modeling offers great potential for species delimitation, especially for taxonomic groups exhibiting low vagility and localized endemism and for groups with more poorly known distributions. In particular, niche modeling should be especially sensitive for detecting recent parapatric speciation driven by ecological divergence, when the environmental gradients driving speciation are represented within the ecological niche models.
One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.
Amphibian chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been a significant driver of amphibian declines. While globally widespread, Bd had not yet been reported from within Madagascar. We document surveys conducted across the country between 2005 and 2014, showing Bd's first record in 2010. Subsequently, Bd was detected in multiple areas, with prevalence reaching up to 100%. Detection of Bd appears to be associated with mid to high elevation sites and to have a seasonal pattern, with greater detectability during the dry season. Lineage-based PCR was performed on a subset of samples. While some did not amplify with any lineage probe, when a positive signal was observed, samples were most similar to the Global Panzootic Lineage (BdGPL). These results may suggest that Bd arrived recently, but do not exclude the existence of a previously undetected endemic Bd genotype. Representatives of all native anuran families have tested Bd-positive, and exposure trials confirm infection by Bd is possible. Bd's presence could pose significant threats to Madagascar's unique “megadiverse” amphibians.
BackgroundAn understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises.Methodology/Principal FindingsSpecies range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas.Conclusions/SignificanceWith a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and western regions of Madagascar and this study highlights the importance of these arid regions to conserving the island's biodiversity.
Highly diverse and so far apparently untouched by emergent diseases, Malagasy frogs nevertheless are threatened by ongoing habitat destruction, making pro-active conservation actions especially important for preserving this unique, pre-decline, amphibian fauna.
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