No abstract

No abstract

IMPORTANCE How often enrollees with complex care needs leave the Medicare Advantage (MA) program and what might drive their decisions remain unknown. OBJECTIVE To characterize trends in switching to and from MA among high-need beneficiaries and to evaluate the drivers of disenrollment decisions. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study of MA and traditional Medicare (TM) enrollees from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2015, used a multinomial logit regression stratified by Medicare-Medicaid eligibility status. All 14 589 645 non-high-need MA enrollees and 1302 470 high-need enrollees in the United States who survived until the end of 2014 were eligible for the analysis. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2017, through August 1, 2018. EXPOSURES Enrollee dual eligibility and high-need status (based on complex chronic conditions, multiple morbidities, use of health care services, functional impairment, and frailty indicators), MA plan star rating, and cost sharing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The proportion of enrollees who disenrolled into TM, remained in the same MA plan, or who switched plans within the MA program. RESULTS A total of 13 901 816 enrollees were included in the analysis (56.2% women; mean [SD] age, 70.9 [9.9] years). Among the 1302 470 high-need enrollees, an adjusted 4.6% (95% CI, 4.5%-4.6%) of Medicare-only and 14.8% (95% CI, 14.5%-15.0%) of Medicare-Medicaid members switched from MA to TM compared with 3.3% (95% CI, 3.3%-3.3%) and 4.6% (95% CI, 4.5%-4.7%), respectively, among non-high-need enrollees. Among enrollees in low-quality plans, 23.0% (95% CI, 22.3%-23.9%) of Medicare and 42.8% (95% CI, 40.5%-45.1%) of dual-eligible high-need enrollees left MA. Even in high-quality plans, high-need members disenrolled at higher rates than non-high-need members (4.9% [95% CI, 4.6%-5.2%] vs 1.8% [95% CI, 1.8%-1.9%] for Medicare-only enrollees and 11.3% vs 2.4% dual eligible enrollees). Enrollment in a 5.0-star rated plan was associated with a 30.1-percentage point reduction (95% CI, −31.7 to −28.4 percentage points) in the probability of disenrollment among high-need individuals. A $100 increase in monthly premiums was associated with a 33.9–percentage point increase (95% CI, −34.9 to −33.0 percentage points) in the likelihood of switching plans, and a small reduction in the likelihood of disenrolling (−2.7 percentage points; 95% CI, −3.2 to −2.2 percentage points). Among Medicare-Medicaid eligible participants, 14.1% (95% CI, 14.0%-14.2%) of high-need and 16.7% (95% CI, 16.6%-16.7%) of non-high-need enrollees switched from TM to MA. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Results of this study suggest that substantially higher disenrollment from MA plans occurs among high-need and Medicare-Medicaid eligible enrollees. This study’s findings suggest that star ratings have the strongest association with disenrollment trends, whereas increases in monthly premiums are associated with greater likelihood of switching plans.

Background Respiratory infections among older adults in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a major global concern, yet a rigorous systematic synthesis of the literature on the burden of respiratory infections in the LTCF setting is lacking. To address the critical need for evidence regarding the global burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs, we assessed the burden of respiratory infections in LTCFs through a systematic review of the published literature. Methods We identified articles published between April 1964 and March 2019 through searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Experimental and observational studies published in English that included adults aged ≥60 residing in LTCFs who were unvaccinated (to identify the natural infection burden), and that reported measures of occurrence for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), or pneumonia were included. Disagreements about article inclusion were discussed and articles were included based on consensus. Data on study design, population, and findings were extracted from each article. Findings were synthesized qualitatively. Results A total of 1451 articles were screened for eligibility, 345 were selected for full-text review, and 26 were included. Study population mean ages ranged from 70.8 to 90.1 years. Three (12%) studies reported influenza estimates, 7 (27%) RSV, and 16 (62%) pneumonia. Eighteen (69%) studies reported incidence estimates, 7 (27%) prevalence estimates, and 1 (4%) both. Seven (27%) studies reported outbreaks. Respiratory infection incidence estimates ranged from 1.1 to 85.2% and prevalence estimates ranging from 1.4 to 55.8%. Influenza incidences ranged from 5.9 to 85.2%. RSV incidence proportions ranged from 1.1 to 13.5%. Pneumonia prevalence proportions ranged from 1.4 to 55.8% while incidence proportions ranged from 4.8 to 41.2%. Conclusions The reported incidence and prevalence estimates of respiratory infections among older LTCF residents varied widely between published studies. The wide range of estimates offers little useful guidance for decision-making to decrease respiratory infection burden. Large, well-designed epidemiologic studies are therefore still necessary to credibly quantify the burden of respiratory infections among older adults in LTCFs, which will ultimately help inform future surveillance and intervention efforts. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-019-1236-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and cognitive decline in older adults residing in an urban area.MethodsData for this study were obtained from 2 prospective cohorts of residents in the northern Manhattan area of New York City: the Washington Heights–Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP) and the Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS). Participants of both cohorts received in-depth neuropsychological testing at enrollment and during follow-up. In each cohort, we used inverse probability weighted linear mixed models to evaluate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between markers of average residential ambient air pollution (nitrogen dioxide [NO2], fine particulate matter [PM2.5], and respirable particulate matter [PM10]) levels in the year prior to enrollment and measures of global and domain-specific cognition, adjusting for sociodemographic factors, temporal trends, and censoring.ResultsAmong 5,330 participants in WHICAP, an increase in NO2 was associated with a 0.22 SD lower global cognitive score at enrollment (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.30, −0.14) and 0.06 SD (95% CI, −0.08, −0.04) more rapid decline in cognitive scores between visits. Results were similar for PM2.5 and PM10 and across functional cognitive domains. We found no evidence of an association between pollution and cognitive function in NOMAS.ConclusionWHICAP participants living in areas with higher levels of ambient air pollutants have lower cognitive scores at enrollment and more rapid rates of cognitive decline over time. In NOMAS, a smaller cohort with fewer repeat measurements, we found no statistically significant associations. These results add to the evidence regarding the adverse effect of air pollution on cognitive aging and brain health.

Objectives: An important challenge faced by emergency physicians (EPs) is determining which patients should be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) and which can be safely admitted to a regular ward. Understanding risk factors leading to undertriage would be useful, but these factors are not well characterized. Methods:The authors performed a secondary analysis of two prospective, observational studies of patients admitted to the hospital with clinically suspected infection from an urban university emergency department (ED). Inclusion criteria were as follows: adult ED patient (age 18 years or older), ward admission, and suspected infection. The primary outcome was transfer to an ICU within 48 hours of admission. Using multiple logistic regression, independent predictors of early ICU transfer were identified, and the area under the curve for the model was calculated.Results: Of 5,365 subjects, 93 (1.7%) were transferred to an ICU within 48 hours. Independent predictors of ICU transfer included respiratory compromise (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4 to 4.3), congestive heart failure (CHF; OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.4 to 3.6), peripheral vascular disease (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.1 to 3.7), systolic blood pressure (sBP) < 100 mm Hg (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.9), heart rate > 90 beats ⁄ min (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.8), and creatinine > 2.0 (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.8). Cellulitis was associated with a lower likelihood of ICU transfer (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.72). The area under the curve for the model was 0.73, showing moderate discriminatory ability. Conclusions:In this preliminary study, independent predictors of ICU transfer within 48 hours of admission were identified. While somewhat intuitive, physicians should consider these factors when determining patient disposition.

BACKGROUND Unlike Medicare, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) health care system does not require veterans with cancer to make the “terrible choice” between receipt of hospice services or disease‐modifying chemotherapy/radiation therapy. For this report, the authors characterized the VA's provision of concurrent care, defined as days in the last 6 months of life during which veterans simultaneously received hospice services and chemotherapy or radiation therapy. METHODS This retrospective cohort study included veteran decedents with cancer during 2006 through 2012 who were identified from claims with cancer diagnoses. Hospice and cancer treatment were identified using VA and Medicare administrative data. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the changes in concurrent care, hospice, palliative care, and chemotherapy or radiation treatment. RESULTS The proportion of veterans receiving chemotherapy or radiation therapy remained stable at approximately 45%, whereas the proportion of veterans who received hospice increased from 55% to 68%. The receipt of concurrent care also increased during this time from 16.2% to 24.5%. The median time between hospice initiation and death remained stable at around 21 days. Among veterans who received chemotherapy or radiation therapy in their last 6 months of life, the median time between treatment termination and death ranged from 35 to 40 days. There was considerable variation between VA medical centers in the use of concurrent care (interquartile range, 16%‐34% in 2012). CONCLUSIONS Concurrent receipt of hospice and chemotherapy or radiation therapy increased among veterans dying from cancer without reductions in the receipt of cancer therapy. This approach reflects the expansion of hospice services in the VA with VA policy allowing the concurrent receipt of hospice and antineoplastic therapies. Cancer 2016;122:782–790. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Facilities with an SCU provide better quality of care as measured by several validated quality indicators. Given the aging population, policies to promote the expansion and use of dementia SCUs may be warranted.