We investigate climate change impacts transferred via foreign trade to Germany, a country that is heavily engaged in international trade. Specifically, we look at temperature changes and the associated labour productivity losses at a global scale until 2050. We assess the effects on Germany's imports and exports by means of a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. To address uncertainty, we account for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using projections from five global climate models. We find that average annual labour productivity for high intensity work declines by up to 31% for RCP4.5 (and up to 38% for RCP8.5) in Southeast Asia and the Middle East by 2050, all relative to a 2050 baseline without climate change. As a consequence, for RCP8.5, Germany's imports from regions outside Europe are lower by up to 2.46%, while imports from within Europe partly compensate this reduction. Also, Germany's exports to regions outside Europe are lower, but total exports increase by up to 0.16% due to higher exports to EU regions. Germany's GDP and welfare, however, are negatively affected with a loss of up to − 0.41% and − 0.46%, respectively. The results highlight that overall positive trade effects for Germany constitute a comparative improvement rather than an absolute gain with climate change.

Public adaptation to climate change affects government budgets directly on the expenditure side, but also indirectly via changes in the tax base and government consumption patterns. While such indirect effects have been analyzed intensively for mitigation policies, similarly detailed model-based frameworks and studies for adaptation policy are still missing. The objectives of the present paper are (i) to fill this gap by proposing a general modeling framework that allows for a comprehensive analysis of effects of adaptation on federal budgets, both on the expenditure and the revenue side, as well as of macroeconomic effects and (ii) to demonstrate its usefulness by applying this framework to the case of Austria. We find that public adaptation can lead to substantial positive macroeconomic effects on gross domestic product (GDP), welfare, and employment. The results are robust with respect to assumptions about the effectiveness of adaptation. Also, we demonstrate that it is essential for analysis to cover both the expenditure and revenue side, as overall government revenues can increase due to adaptation, offsetting additional direct public expenses for adaptation, thus increasing the budget balance. This is because of less severe climate change impacts and the corresponding lower payments for post-disaster relief and unemployment benefits as well as higher tax revenues. We thus strongly recommend making use of economy-wide modeling frameworks when planning for adaptation, as they shed light on the true costs and benefits of adaptation.

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There is growing recognition that international trade can transmit climate risks across borders, requiring new forms of and approaches to adaptation. This advanced review synthesizes knowledge on how, by whom and where adaptation actions can be taken in the agriculture and industrial sectors to reduce these transboundary climate risks (TCRs). We find a material difference in the literature on TCRs in agriculture as compared with industrial sectors. Operational and market risks, in particular reductions in food availability, dominate in agriculture, while supply chain and trade‐related risks are highlighted for industry. While the origin of the risk (source) is the primary target of adaptation to agricultural TCRs, the general governance structure, such as UNFCCC and WTO deliberations, are important targets in both sectors. Adaptation at the country of destination and along the trade network is of minor importance in both sectors. Regarding the type of adaptation option, agriculture heavily relies on trade policy, agricultural adaptation, and adaptation planning and coordination, while in industry knowledge creation, research and development, and risk management are seen as essential. Governments and the international community are identified as key actors, complemented by businesses and research as critical players in industry. Some measures, such as protectionist trade policies and irrigation, are controversial as they shift risks across countries and sectors, rather than reduce them. While more research is needed, this review shows that a critical mass of evidence on adaptation to TCRs is beginning to emerge, particularly underscoring the importance of international coordination mechanisms. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

Cascading risks that can spread through complex systems have recently gained attention. As it is crucial for decision‐makers to put figures on such risks and their interactions, models that explicitly capture such interactions in a realistic manner are needed. Climate related hazards often cascade through different systems, from physical to economic and social systems, causing direct but also indirect risks and losses. Despite their growing importance in the light of ongoing climate change and increasing global connections, such indirect risks are not well understood. Applying two fundamentally different economic models—a computable general equilibrium model and an agent‐based model—we reveal indirect risks of flood events. The models are fed with sector‐specific capital stock damages, which constitutes a major methodological improvement. We apply these models for Austria, a highly flood exposed country with strong economic linkages. A key finding is that flood damages pose very different indirect risks to different sectors and household groups (distributional effects) in the short and long‐term. Our results imply that risk management should focus on specific societal subgroups and sectors. We provide a simple metric for indirect risk, showing how direct and indirect losses are related. This can provide new ways forward in risk management, for example, focusing on interconnectedness of sectors and agents within different risk‐layers of indirect risk. Although we offer highly relevant leverage points for indirect risk management in Austria, the methodology of analyzing indirect risks can be transferred to other regions.

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