IntroductionPatients with acute stroke are at high risk for infection. These infections are associated with unfavourable outcome after stroke. A prediction rule can identify the patients at the highest risk for strategies to prevent infection. We aim to develop a prediction rule for post-stroke pneumonia and other infections in patients with acute stroke.Patients and methodsWe used data from the Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study, a multicentre randomised trial comparing preventive ceftriaxone vs. standard stroke care in patients with acute stroke. Possible predictors for post-stroke pneumonia or infection were selected from the literature. Backward elimination logistic regression analysis was used to construct prediction rules for pneumonia or infection. Internal validation was performed and a risk chart was constructed. We adjusted for preventive antibiotic use.ResultsPneumonia was diagnosed in 159 of the 2538 included patients, and infection in 348. Pneumonia was predicted by higher age, male sex, pre-stroke disability, medical history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, more severe stroke, dysphagia and intracerebral haemorrhage (rather than ischaemic stroke). Infections were predicted by higher age, male sex, history of diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, more severe stroke, dysphagia, use of bladder catheter, preventive antibiotic use and intracerebral haemorrhage. With the prediction rule developed, risks for pneumonia ranged from 0.4% to 56.2% and from 1.8% to 88.0% for infection. Discrimination of the score was good (C-statistic, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.81–0.87 and 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79–0.84 for pneumonia and infection).ConclusionsThe Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study pneumonia and infection rule identify patients at the highest risk for post-stroke pneumonia or infection and may be used for future studies and novel therapies, after confirmation in an external population.

The DIAGRAM scores help to predict the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with non-traumatic ICH based on age, ICH location, SVD and CTA.

ObjectiveTo study the early time course of major bleeding and its subtypes in patients with cerebral ischemia on dual and single antiplatelet therapy.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis on individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischaemic Events [CAPRIE], Second European Stroke Prevention Study [ESPS-2], Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients [MATCH], Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management, and Avoidance [CHARISMA], European/Australasian Stroke Prevention in Reversible Ischaemia Trial [ESPRIT], and Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Second Strokes [PRoFESS]) including 45,195 patients with a TIA or noncardioembolic ischemic stroke. We studied incidence rates of bleeding per antiplatelet regimen stratified by time from randomization (≤30, 31–90, 91–180, 181–365, >365 days). We calculated incidence rates per trial and pooled estimates with random-effects meta-analysis. We performed Poisson regression to assess differences between time periods with adjustment for age and sex.ResultsThe incidence of major bleeding on aspirin plus clopidogrel and aspirin plus -dipyridamole was highest in the first 30 days, 5.8 and 4.9 per 100 person-years, respectively, and was significantly higher than at 31 to 90 days (rate ratio 1.98, 95% confidence interval 1.16–3.40 for aspirin plus clopidogrel; rate ratio 1.94, 95% confidence interval 1.24–3.03 for aspirin plus dipyridamole). Incidence rates on aspirin and clopidogrel monotherapy were 2.8 and 2.5 per 100 person-years, respectively, in the first 30 days, with no significant change over time. The time course was similar for gastrointestinal bleeds. There was no early excess of intracranial hemorrhage in patients on either dual or single antiplatelet therapy.ConclusionDual antiplatelet therapy is associated with high early risks of major and gastrointestinal bleeding that decline after the first month in trial cohorts.