SummaryBackgroundUnderstanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation.MethodsWe used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013–14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis.FindingsThere were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40–60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2–6 months, this implies that 1·19–5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed.InterpretationIndia's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background There is a pressing need for systematic approaches for monitoring how much TB treatment is ongoing in the private sector in India: both to cast light on the true scale of the problem, and to help monitor the progress of interventions currently being planned to address this problem. Methods We used commercially available data on the sales of rifampicin-containing drugs in the private sector, adjusted for data coverage and indication of use. We examined temporal, statewise trends in volumes (patient-months) of TB treatment from 2013 to 2016. We additionally analysed the proportion of drugs that were sold in combination packaging (designed to simplify TB treatment), or as loose pills. Results Drug sales suggest a steady trend of TB treatment dispensed by the private sector, from 18.4 million patient-months (95% CI 17.3–20.5) in 2013 to 16.8 patient-months (95% CI 15.5–19.0) in 2016. Overall, seven of 29 states in India accounted for more than 70% of national-level TB treatment volumes, including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar. The overwhelming majority of TB treatment was dispensed not as loose pills, but in combination packaging with other TB drugs, accounting for over 96% of private sector TB treatment in 2017. Conclusions Our findings suggest consistent levels of TB treatment in the private sector over the past 4 years, while highlighting specific states that should be prioritized for intervention. Drug sales data can be helpful for monitoring a system as large, disorganised and opaque as India’s private sector.

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Background: India has a high burden of hypertension. While the private sector provides 70% of out-patient care in the country, a significant proportion of patients seeking care from the public sector buy drugs from private markets. This study aimed to describe India’s private sector antihypertensive drugs market at the national and state levels over 2016–2018. Methods: Antihypertensive drugs sales in India from 2016–2018 were analysed using a large nationally representative dataset for the private pharmaceuticals market. In addition, data for five states (Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, and Maharashtra) that were the foci of a large hypertension control program were studied. Results: The Indian hypertension drug market grew at a rate of 6.9% from 2016 to 2018 with a total of 21,066 million pills sales in 2018. Single-pill combinations (SPCs) contributed to 39.1% of total sale volumes. The market comprised of 182 different antihypertensive drugs including 134 SPCs. Total volume of sales covered a maximum of 26% of treatment need for the estimated population with hypertension. Two-drug SPCs had the highest market share (36%), followed by calcium channel blockers (18%), beta-blockers (16%) and angiotensin receptor blockers (14%). Among SPCs, amlodipine+atenolol had highest sales (9.8%). Twenty-five drugs, a mix of single drugs and SPCs, accounted for 80% of total sales. There were large state-to-state variations in sales per capita, preferred therapeutic classes and drugs. Conclusions: Despite the large antihypertensive drugs market, there exists a high unmet need for treatment in India. Inter-state differences in product sales indicate variable treatment practices, underscoring the need for private sector engagement to improve hypertension care practices aligned with national and international guidelines. SPCs contributed to a large share of the private market and inclusion of select antihypertensive SPCs in the national list of essential medications should be considered for the public health system.