This study examines the relationship between firm performance and corporate governance structure, mainly leadership structure. The leadership structure is strongly related to CEO duality. There are several aspects and dimensions of this relation, which may influence the corporate performance but this study focuses on the extreme situation where this relation reaches its ends, namely the corporation collapse. This paper has considered the factors that can cause corporate failure and its governance inability to attain their objectives. Data were collected from 385 bankrupt and 14.000 non-bankrupt unlisted Greek firms for a period of ten years in order for a model to be drawn, indicating the possibility of those firms incorporated under duality to bankrupt.
Η πρόβλεψη της χρεοκοπίας των επιχειρήσεων, σε ένα διαρκώς μεταβαλλόμενο οικονομικό περιβάλλον, αποτελεί θέμα ζωτικής σημασίας τόσο για τις επιχειρήσεις, όσο και για τους λοιπούς ενδιαφερόμενους για τη πορεία της επιχείρησης, όπως χρηματοπιστωτικούς οργανισμούς, προμηθευτές, επενδυτές, πελάτες, ελεγκτικές αρχές, εργαζόμενους κλπ.Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή, διερευνά την πρόβλεψη της χρεοκοπίας των επιχειρήσεων, εφαρμόζοντας τις τεχνικές: Της πολυμεταβλητής διακριτικής ανάλυσης(multivariate discriminant analysis), του γραμμικού υποδείγματος πιθανότητας (Linear Probability model), του λογαριθμικού υποδείγματος πιθανότητας (Logit) και του κανονικού υποδείγματος πιθανότητας (Probit), χρησιμοποιώντας πέντε χρηματοοικονομικούς δείκτες (ανεξάρτητες μεταβλητές), οι οποίοι επιλέχθηκαν με τη μέθοδο της παραγoντικής ανάλυσης(factor analysis). Το δείγμα, το οποίο περιλαμβάνει, 339 Ελληνικές πτωχευμένες εταιρείες της χρονικής περιόδου 2003 – 2014, αντιστοιχήθηκε με ένα ισάριθμο δείγμα υγιών – ενεργών εταιρειών, το οποίο σχηματίσθηκε με τυχαία επιλογή, και διαχωρίσθηκε σε τέσσερους βασικούς κλάδους της Ελληνικής οικονομίας, ήτοι: Μεταποιητικό – βιομηχανικό, Χονδρικού εμπορίου, Λιανικού εμπορίου και κλάδο Υπηρεσιών.Θεωρώντας ότι η οικονομική κρίση στη χώρα, δημιούργησε καταστάσεις που προσδίδουν διαφορετική συμπεριφορά στις επιχειρήσεις, από την περίοδο πριν την κρίση, πραγματοποιήθηκε ανάλυση και για τις δύο περιόδους (πριν την οικονομική κρίση και κατά τη διάρκεια αυτής), ξεχωριστά.Τα αποτελέσματα έδειξαν ότι υπάρχουν σαφείς διαφορές, τόσο μεταξύ των διαφορετικών περιόδων, όσο και μεταξύ των διαφορετικών κλάδων της οικονομίας. Τα υποδείγματα Probit και Logit, στις περισσότερες των περιπτώσεων υπερέχουν σε προγνωστική ικανότητα, των άλλων δυο υποδειγμάτων, ενώ οι χρηματοοικονομικοί δείκτες(ανεξάρτητες μεταβλητές), που επιδεικνύουν καλύτερη επεξηγηματική ικανότητα είναι οι αριθμοδείκτες: Δανειακά Κεφάλαια προς Συνολικά Απασχολούμενα Κεφάλαια και EBITDA προς Σύνολο Ενεργητικού.
This paper investigates whether the management of firms in financial distress applies creative accounting techniques in order to fine-tune the elements of their financial statements. For this purpose, the financial statements of 385 Greek bankrupt firms of the trade and manufacturing sectors for the period 2003 to 2014 were analyzed. The sample was divided into two sub periods; in the period before the financial crisis, that is from 2003 to 2008, and the period 2009 to 2014 during which the Greek economy was in crisis and recession. By applying factor analysis, five financial ratios were selected, which formed the independent variables in a Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Logit models in order to find those firms which, while they were bankrupt they were classified in the last period of their operation as healthy (type I error).By selecting these firms (common to both models), their accounting data for the last two years before they went bankrupt have been investigated in order to determine whether they have been affected by the application of creative accounting methods. The results showed that the management of some of the selected firms applied creative accounting techniques during the last year of operation before their bankruptcy, which led to the manipulation and falsification of the published financial statements during the period before the financial crisis. However, this is not the case for the period 2009 to 2014, because the economic crisis affects the behavior of managers in applying creative accounting, which is owing to the changes in market rules.
Research Question: The investigation of the optimal allocation of current assets. Motivation: Current assets investment is a decision process which affects firm value. In this paper, we develop a framework that encompasses these decisions by taking into consideration the trade-off between risk and return. Idea: We build up a model implemented in two stages. In the first stage, using random coefficient modeling on panel data, we obtain the estimates of the expected returns and standard deviations for cash holdings, inventories and receivables along with the correlations between them. Having these estimates on hand we move on to the second stage to determine the optimal allocation of current assets portfolio and construct the efficient frontier of the possible combinations of the current assets' elements. Data: For the purposes of our study we use financial data from Greek manufacturing firms, drawn from their annual income statements and balance sheets. Firms are classified into the manufacturing industry for the years 2003 to 2014. Tools: In the first stage we use random coefficient modeling on panel data while in the second stage mean-variance analysis is employed. Findings: By applying the model in the Greek manufacturing sector we find that the minimum-variance portfolio of the average firm of our data set has an expected return of 10.00% with a 6.14% standard deviation (risk) and consists of 13% cash and cash equivalents, 29% inventories and 58% receivables. Contribution: Our model would be useful to assess and monitor firms' current assets investments and may be used in the formulation of sound current assets policies and procedures.
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