One of main issues in planning future power system expansion is forecast of expected electricity generating costs. Due to the fact that the forecast should be extended to plants lifetime it is best to consider and compare lifetime levelized cost of generated electricity for each of the candidate plants. The analysis is a part of studies for the future expansion of the Croatian power system, but is valid generally. The main competitors to nuclear power plants are combined cycle natural gas fired plants whose economy strongly depends upon gas cost. The expected increase of gas cost in following decades can substantially influence the competitiveness of nuclear plants versus gas fired plants. In addition, the costs of electricity produced by coal fired plants and wind electricity generators were also considered. Due to uncertainties of input parameters it is advantageous to use probabilistic instead of deterministic method of analysis. The paper considers the problem of the probabilistic distribution of nuclear power plant investment costs for which such plants could be competitive to gas fired plants for an estimated probable range of gas cost increase rates.
Renewal of nuclear power programs in countries with modest electricity consumptions and weak electrical grid interconnections has raised the question of optimal nuclear power plants sizes for such countries. The same question would be also valid for isolated or weakly connected regions within a large country. Building large size nuclear power plant could be prevented by technical or financial limits. Research programs have been initiated in the International Atomic Energy Agency and in the USA (within the framework of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) program) with the aim to inspect under which circumstances small and medium reactors could be the preferred option compared to large nuclear plants. The economy of scale is a clear advantage of large plants. This paper compares, by using probabilistic methods, the net cash flow of large and medium size plants, taking as example a large nuclear plant (around 1200 MW) and four sequentially built smaller plants (300 MW). Potential advantages and disadvantageous of both options have been considered. Main advantages of the sequential construction of several identical small units could be the reduced investor risk and reduced investment costs due to the learning effect. This analysis is a part of studies for the Croatian power generating system development.
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