In order for ‘carve-out’ pension privatization to improve long-term sustainability, the transition should not be predominantly debt financed, and private pension funds should deliver (net) rates of return tangibly higher than gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We show that none of the reforming countries in Eastern Europe was successful in fulfilling these two preconditions, even before the emergence of the global financial crisis. While existing literature mostly describes a recent wave of reform reversals as politically driven short-sighted policies that deteriorate long-term sustainability, we argue the contrary: that pension privatization structural deficiencies and disappointing performance allow reversals to improve the short-term stance without necessarily undermining long-term pension sustainability. We conclude that unless political consensus exists to support the multi-decade fiscal austerity required to finance pension privatization, reform adjustments and reversals can be a rational alternative to maintaining economically suboptimal or politically unstable pension systems in some Eastern European countries.

The article explores the initial macro-financial performance of partial pension system "privatizations" -involving privately-managed individual retirement savings accounts (IRAs) -undertaken in many emerging European countries. Using empirical data for a period of close to a decade, the evidence shows that returns on privately-managed IRAs have been below the implicit rate of return of public pay-asyou-go (PAYG) systems. High operating costs and undeveloped capital markets are identified as major contributing factors to the failure of privately-managed IRAs to meet reform expectations. In light of empirical evidence, Serbia is advised to focus on parametric PAYG reforms and to avoid reforms that involve the partial "privatization" of the pension system.i ssr_1391 23..44

This article offers a critical analysis of the methods by means of which data relating to the performance of second pillar pension schemes are collated, compared and reported. This is done with regard to the performance of mandatory private second pillar pension funds in Eastern Europe. By critically examining data published in a number of World Bank studies, and through the identification of data problems and irregularities, the article argues that a much more elaborate and transparent approach to the collation, comparative analysis and reporting of data is needed. Required is the establishment of a consensus regarding what should represent a robust basis for making credible policy recommendations, not least with regard to pension re-reforms in the countries of Eastern Europe and elsewhere. In the absence of such a consensus, unresolved data problems and irregularities may potentially continue to influence the formulation of incomplete national policy conclusions regarding the performance of second pillar pension funds and, in turn, the ability of policymakers to evaluate appropriately the need for, and assess the feasibility of implementing in a sustainable manner, pension re-reform.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Analyses of pension funding effects on economic growth need to differentiate between 'carveout' pension privatization in Latin America and Eastern Europe and typical 'add-on' pension funding in Western Europe and North America. We find no evidence that pension privatization in Latin America and Eastern Europe was associated with higher economic growth. The result is robust across both continents and several alternative econometric specifications. Positive growth effects are particularly unlikely in countries resorting to debt-financed privatization. Furthermore, we note the lack of positive pension privatization effects on savings in Eastern Europe, with limited evidence of positive savings effects in Latin America. These findings suggest that cost-containment parametric reforms should be given priority over carve-out pension privatization when considering options for restoring financial sustainability of public Pay-As-You-Go systems. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Codes: J320, G280, H550, C230.

No abstract

Serbia is one of the rare eastern European countries that decisively dismissed the controversial pension privatisation agenda whereby mandatory private pension funds would be introduced to (partially) replace existing public pay-as-you-go (PAYG) benefits. Instead, Serbia opted for a more traditional western European approach, combining PAYG cost-containment parametric reforms with the introduction of tax-preferred supplementary private pensions. We explain that the desire for equitable intergenerational burden-sharing was one of the key factors behind the decision-making process that made Serbia diverge from regional trends and World Bank orthodoxy. Nonetheless, problems that have plagued mandatory private funds in neighbouring countries, such as excessive operating costs and undiversified portfolios, have also been prevalent in the Serbian voluntary private pension fund industry, which failed to achieve tangible labour market coverage and whose survival has been due mostly to exclusive tax privileges.

The influential World Bank Averting the old-age crisis study profoundly influenced pension policies around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Eastern Europe. While Western Europe dismissed radical carve-out pension privatization initiatives, Eastern European countries with similar Pas-As-You-Go legacies pursued World Bank reforms hoping to increase retirement incomes, spur economic growth, and hedge political risks inherent in public systems. However, 25 years later, reversals are taking place in all reforming countries, ranging from outright dismantling of mandatory private pension funds to their scaling-down and moving to voluntary participation. Empirical evidence presented in this article suggests that carve-out privatization failed to accelerate economic growth, while private pension funds turned out to be dynamically inefficient and inferior to PAYG systems they were intended to replace. We argue that the carve-out approach is the root cause of inherent economic and fiscal tension between public and private pension pillars. We identify a minimum set of Pareto improving reform adjustments that address the most pressing sources of economic inefficiencies and political instability by undoing the carve-out financing. The suggested re-reforms would be a first step in enabling private pension funds in Eastern Europe to become a meaningful supplement to existing PAYG benefits, in line with typical pension practices in Western Europe.

International pension reform experiences indicate that, amid demographic aging, each country needs to identify the reform policies most suited to its own economic and social environment. The economic analysis in this paper suggests that a potential prefunding of the Serbian pension system, either through a public pension reserve fund or mandatory private pension funds, would yield an economic performance inferior to the existing PAYG financing. If a wealth transfer from current to future generations is desirable from the macroeconomic or social perspective it should be implemented through repayment of outstanding public debt, not through pension system prefunding. Pension reform efforts should thus focus on parametric PAYG changes and adequate integration of voluntary retirement saving vehicles into the Serbian pension system.