The dipole configuration of the Earth's magnetic field allows for the trapping of highly energetic particles, which form the radiation belts. Although significant advances have been made in understanding the acceleration mechanisms in the radiation belts, the loss processes remain poorly understood. Unique observations on 17 January 2013 provide detailed information throughout the belts on the energy spectrum and pitch angle (angle between the velocity of a particle and the magnetic field) distribution of electrons up to ultra-relativistic energies. Here we show that although relativistic electrons are enhanced, ultra-relativistic electrons become depleted and distributions of particles show very clear telltale signatures of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave-induced loss. Comparisons between observations and modelling of the evolution of the electron flux and pitch angle show that electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves provide the dominant loss mechanism at ultra-relativistic energies and produce a profound dropout of the ultra-relativistic radiation belt fluxes.

Significant progress has been made in recent years in understanding acceleration mechanisms in the Earth's radiation belts. In particular, a number of studies demonstrated the importance of the local acceleration by analyzing the radial profiles of phase space density (PSD) and observing building up peaks in PSD. In this study, we focus on understanding of the local loss using very similar tools. The profiles of PSD for various values of the first adiabatic invariants during the previously studied 17 January 2013 storm are presented and discussed. The profiles of PSD show clear deepening minimums consistent with the scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. Long‐term evolution shows that local minimums in PSD can persist for relatively long times. During considered interval of time the deepening minimums were observed around L* = 4 during 17 January 2013 storm and around L* = 3.5 during 1 March 2013 storm. This study shows a new method that can help identify the location, magnitude, and time of the local loss and will help quantify local loss in the future. This study also provides additional clear and definitive evidence that local loss plays a major role for the dynamics of the multi‐MeV electrons.

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play an important role in the dynamics of ultrarelativistic electron population in the radiation belts. However, as EMIC waves are very sporadic, developing a parameterization of such wave properties is a challenging task. Currently, there are no dynamic, activity‐dependent models of EMIC waves that can be used in the long‐term (several months) simulations, which makes the quantitative modeling of the radiation belt dynamics incomplete. In this study, we investigate Kp, Dst, and AE indices, solar wind speed, and dynamic pressure as possible parameters of EMIC wave presence. The EMIC waves are included in the long‐term simulations (1 year, including different geomagnetic activity) performed with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code, and we compare results of the simulation with the Van Allen Probes observations. The comparison shows that modeling with EMIC waves, parameterized by solar wind dynamic pressure, provides a better agreement with the observations among considered parameterizations. The simulation with EMIC waves improves the dynamics of ultrarelativistic fluxes and reproduces the formation of the local minimum in the phase space density profiles.

Chorus waves play an important role in the dynamic evolution of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using more than 5 years of Van Allen Probe data, we developed a new analytical model for upper‐band chorus (UBC; 0.5fce < f < fce) and lower‐band chorus (LBC; 0.05fce < f < 0.5fce) waves, where fce is the equatorial electron gyrofrequency. By applying polynomial fits to chorus wave root mean square amplitudes, we developed regression models for LBC and UBC as a function of geomagnetic activity (Kp), L, magnetic latitude (λ), and magnetic local time (MLT). Dependence on Kp is separated from the dependence on λ, L, and MLT as Kp‐scaling law to simplify the calculation of diffusion coefficients and inclusion into particle tracing codes. Frequency models for UBC and LBC are also developed, which depends on MLT and magnetic latitude. This empirical model is valid in all MLTs, magnetic latitude up to 20°, Kp ≤ 6, L‐shell range from 3.5 to 6 for LBC and from 4 to 6 for UBC. The dependence of root mean square amplitudes on L are different for different bands, which implies different energy sources for different wave bands. This analytical chorus wave model is convenient for inclusion in quasi‐linear diffusion calculations of electron scattering rates and particle simulations in the inner magnetosphere, especially for the newly developed four‐dimensional codes, which require significantly improved wave parameterizations.

Up until recently, signatures of the ultrarelativistic electron loss driven by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the Earth's outer radiation belt have been limited to direct or indirect measurements of electron precipitation or the narrowing of normalized pitch angle distributions in the heart of the belt. In this study, we demonstrate additional observational evidence of ultrarelativistic electron loss that can be driven by resonant interaction with EMIC waves. We analyzed the profiles derived from Van Allen Probe particle data as a function of time and three adiabatic invariants between 9 October and 29 November 2012. New local minimums in the profiles are accompanied by the narrowing of normalized pitch angle distributions and ground‐based detection of EMIC waves. Such a correlation may be indicative of ultrarelativistic electron precipitation into the Earth's atmosphere caused by resonance with EMIC waves.

Radial diffusion is one of the dominant physical mechanisms that drives acceleration and loss of the radiation belt electrons, which makes it very important for nowcasting and forecasting space weather models. We investigate the sensitivity of the two parameterizations of the radial diffusion of Brautigam and Albert (2000) and Ozeke et al. (2014) on long‐term radiation belt modeling using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB). Following Brautigam and Albert (2000) and Ozeke et al. (2014), we first perform 1‐D radial diffusion simulations. Comparison of the simulation results with observations shows that the difference between simulations with either radial diffusion parameterization is small. To take into account effects of local acceleration and loss, we perform 3‐D simulations, including pitch angle, energy, and mixed diffusion. We found that the results of 3‐D simulations are even less sensitive to the choice of parameterization of radial diffusion rates than the results of 1‐D simulations at various energies (from 0.59 to 1.80 MeV). This result demonstrates that the inclusion of local acceleration and pitch angle diffusion can provide a negative feedback effect, such that the result is largely indistinguishable simulations conducted with different radial diffusion parameterizations. We also perform a number of sensitivity tests by multiplying radial diffusion rates by constant factors and show that such an approach leads to unrealistic predictions of radiation belt dynamics.

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis. Plain Language Summary The radiation belts of the Earth, which are the zones of charged energetic particles trapped by the geomagnetic field, comprise complex and dynamic systems posing a significant threat to a variety of commercial and military satellites. While the inner belt is relatively stable, the outer belt is highly variable and depends substantially on solar activity; therefore, accurate and improved models of electron flux in the outer radiation belt are essential to understand the underlying physical processes. Although many models have been developed for the geostationary orbit and relativistic energies, prediction of electron flux in the 120-600 keV energy range still remains challenging. We present a data-driven model of the medium energies (120-600 keV) differentialelectron flux in the outer radiation belt based on machine learning. We use 17 years of electron observations by Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. We set up a 3D model for flux prediction in terms of L-values, MLT, and magnetic latitude. The model gives reliable predictions of the radiation environment in the outer radiation belt and has wide space weather applications.

Fluctuations in the magnetic and electric fields result in diffusive motion of radiation belt electrons across Roederer's L* parameter (Fälthammar, 1965;Roederer, 1970), a version of the third adiabatic invariant. L* diffusion (henceforth referred to as radial diffusion) occurs at constant first and second adiabatic invariants, and the electron's energy is increased (reduced) with diffusion into regions of stronger (weaker) magnetic field. Much of the dynamics of the radiation belts can be attributed to radial diffusion and the subsequent energy change of the electron populations (Shprits et al., 2008), so understanding the rate of the diffusion is a vital factor for accurately predicting and reconstructing the evolution of electron populations.The primary origin of electric and magnetic fluctuations, driving radial diffusion, is widely accepted to be ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave activity (Elkington et al., 1999) in the Pc-5 band (1.67-6.67 mHz (Jacobs et al., 1964)). Wave-particle interactions between these ULF waves and radiation belt electrons are particularly effective when the wave frequency is a multiple of the electron drift frequency, constituting a drift-resonant interaction. If interactions with Pc-5 waves continue over a broad frequency range, then the displacement of a particle in L* may evolve stochastically, following continuous interactions with multiple waves, and be described as a diffusive process (Ukhorskiy & Sitnov, 2013;Ukhorskiy et al., 2009). In this diffusive regime, the radial diffusion coefficient, D LL , quantifies the mean square displacement of electrons across L*, and is a measure of the radial diffusion rate.