Water scarcity in Northeast Brazil has caused latent perturbations in hydropower generation, which is undesirable for Energy Planning. Thus, this study aims to identify the influence of climate on hydropower generation by Sobradinho Dam in Bahia by: (i) assessing the streamflow climatology (1964–2017) and rainfall (1964–2015) through time series analysis, hypothesis testing and cluster analysis; (ii) assessing hydropower generation (2000–2017) using climate and energy data, through principal component analysis and dynamic regression models. The results indicated reductions of up to 30% in the mean climatological streamflow patterns; and reductions in rainfall amounts of 22.9%, 13.3% and 12.4% at latitudes 9°, 12°and 13°South, respectively. Decreasing trends were found in simulations of hydropower generation under the influence of different climate variables. Thus, the hydroelectric system operates in contingency, due to the growing energy load demand resulting in more energy imports in Northeast Brazil.
This paper aims to assess and evaluate the capacity factor of Wind Farms, since this is the most relevant performance indicator currently used in studies regarding energy planning associated to climate conditions. The capacity factor comprising the period between 2009 and 2014 is analyzed in all Wind Farms according to guidelines defined by the Electric System National Operator (ONS). The study intends to compare the predicted and actual values for the generated power measured in MW and also percentage quantities. The contribution of wind energy in Brazilian energy matrix is also evaluated when compared with the average demand measured in MW. Besides, some issues are proposed regarding the possible replacement of conventional hydrothermal generation for the hydro/wind one in some specific regions whose wind potential is prominent.
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