Table grape browning is a complex physiological disorder that occurs during cold storage. There is a need to investigate novel and innovative ways to manage the problem that hampers the progressive and sustainable growth of table grape industries. Given the complex nature of the browning phenomenon, techniques such as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy can be utilized for the non-destructive classification of different browning phenotypes. In this study, NIR coupled with partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to classify bunches as either clear or as having chocolate browning and friction browning based on the spectra obtained from intact ‘Regal Seedless’ table grape bunches that were cold-stored over different periods. Friction browning appears as circular spots close to the pedicel area that are formed when table grape berries move against each other, and chocolate browning appears as discoloration, which originates mostly from the stylar-end of the berry, although the whole berry may appear brown in severe instances. The evaluation of the models constructed using PLS-DA was done using the classification error rate (CER), specificity, and sensitivity and for the models constructed using ANN, the kappa score was used. The CER for chocolate browning (25%) was better than that of friction browning (46%) for weeks 3 and 4 for both class 0 (absence of browning) and class 1 (presence of browning). Both the specificity and sensitivity of class 0 and class 1 for friction browning were not as good as that of chocolate browning. With ANN, the kappa score was tested to classify table grape bunches as clear or having chocolate browning or friction browning and showed that chocolate browning could be classified with a strong agreement during weeks 3 and 4 and weeks 5 and 6 and that friction browning could be classified with a moderate agreement during weeks 3 and 4. These results open up new possibilities for the development of quality checks of packed table grape bunches before export. This has a significant impact on the table grape industry for it will now be possible to evaluate bunches non-destructively during packaging to determine the possibility of these browning types being present when reaching the export market.
After years of drought, the rainy season is always welcomed. Unfortunately, this can also herald widespread flooding which can result in loss of livelihood, property, and human life. In this study a Bayesian network is used to develop a flood prediction model for a Tshwane catchment area prone to flash floods. This causal model was considered due to a shortage of flood data. The developed Bayesian network was evaluated by environmental domain experts and implemented in Python through pyAgrum. Three what-if scenarios are used to verify the model and estimation of probabilities which were based on expert knowledge. The model was then used to predict a low and high rainfall scenario. It was able to predict no flooding events for a low rainfall scenario, and flooding events, especially around the rivers, for a high rainfall scenario. The model therefore behaves as expected.
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