Regional climate modeling using convection‐permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large‐scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.
Since the mid-1960s, rapid regional summer warming has occurred on the east coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula, with near-surface temperatures increasing by more than 2°C. This warming has contributed significantly to the collapse of the northern sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Coincident with this warming, the summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) has exhibited a marked trend, suggested by modeling studies to be predominantly a response to anthropogenic forcing, resulting in increased westerlies across the northern peninsula.Observations and reanalysis data are utilized to demonstrate that the changing SAM has played a key role in driving this local summer warming. It is proposed that the stronger summer westerly winds reduce the blocking effect of the Antarctic Peninsula and lead to a higher frequency of air masses being advected eastward over the orographic barrier of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. When this occurs, a combination of a climatological temperature gradient across the barrier and the formation of a föhn wind on the lee side typically results in a summer near-surface temperature sensitivity to the SAM that is 3 times greater on the eastern side of the peninsula than on the west. SAM variability is also shown to play a less important role in determining summer temperatures at stations west of the barrier in the northern peninsula (ϳ62°S), both at the surface and throughout the troposphere. This is in contrast to a station farther south (ϳ65°S) where the SAM exerts little influence.
Recent, heavy snow accumulation events over Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, contributed significantly to the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB). Here we combine in situ accumulation measurements and radar‐derived snowfall rates from Princess Elisabeth station (PE), located in the DML escarpment zone, along with the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis to investigate moisture transport patterns responsible for these events. In particular, two high‐accumulation events in May 2009 and February 2011 showed an atmospheric river (AR) signature with enhanced integrated water vapor (IWV), concentrated in narrow long bands stretching from subtropical latitudes to the East Antarctic coast. Adapting IWV‐based AR threshold criteria for Antarctica (by accounting for the much colder and drier environment), we find that it was four and five ARs reaching the coastal DML that contributed 74–80% of the outstanding SMB during 2009 and 2011 at PE. Therefore, accounting for ARs is crucial for understanding East Antarctic SMB.
The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.
Although the African Great Lakes are important regulators for the East African climate, their influence on atmospheric dynamics and the regional hydrological cycle remains poorly understood. This study aims to assess this impact by comparing a regional climate model simulation that resolves individual lakes and explicitly computes lake temperatures to a simulation without lakes. The Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling model in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) coupled to the Freshwater Lake model (FLake) and Community Land Model (CLM) is used to dynamically downscale a simulation from the African Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) to 7-km grid spacing for the period of 1999-2008. Evaluation of the model reveals good performance compared to both in situ and satellite observations, especially for spatiotemporal variability of lake surface temperatures (0.68-K bias), and precipitation (2116 mm yr 21 or 8% bias). Model integrations indicate that the four major African Great Lakes almost double the annual precipitation amounts over their surface but hardly exert any influence on precipitation beyond their shores. Except for Lake Kivu, the largest lakes also cool the annual near-surface air by 20.6 to 20.9 K on average, this time with pronounced downwind influence. The lake-induced cooling happens during daytime, when the lakes absorb incoming solar radiation and inhibit upward turbulent heat transport. At night, when this heat is released, the lakes warm the near-surface air. Furthermore, Lake Victoria has a profound influence on atmospheric dynamics and stability, as it induces circular airflow with over-lake convective inhibition during daytime and the reversed pattern at night. Overall, this study shows the added value of resolving individual lakes and realistically representing lake surface temperatures for climate studies in this region.
[1] Compared to other regions, little is known about clouds in Antarctica. This arises in part from the challenging deployment of instrumentation in this remote and harsh environment and from the limitations of traditional satellite passive remote sensing over the polar regions. Yet clouds have a critical influence on the ice sheet's radiation budget and its surface mass balance. The extremely low temperatures, absolute humidity levels, and aerosol concentrations found in Antarctica create unique conditions for cloud formation that greatly differ from those encountered in other regions, including the Arctic. During the first decade of the 21st century, new results from field studies, the advent of cloud observations from spaceborne active sensors, and improvements in cloud parameterizations in numerical models have contributed to significant advances in our understanding of Antarctic clouds. This review covers four main topics: (1) observational methods and instruments, (2) the seasonal and interannual variability of cloud amounts, (3) the microphysical properties of clouds and aerosols, and (4) cloud representation in global and regional numerical models. Aside from a synthesis of the existing literature, novel insights are also presented. A new climatology of clouds over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is derived from combined measurements of the CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellites. This climatology is used to assess the forecast cloud amounts in 20th century global climate model simulations. While cloud monitoring over Antarctica from space has proved essential to the recent advances, the review concludes by emphasizing the need for additional in situ measurements.
[1] A regional atmospheric model, with a horizontal grid spacing (Dx) of 14 km, is used to study the surface mass balance components (precipitation, sublimation, and snow drift) in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An integration is performed for the 7-year period 1987-1993, using a realistic forcing at the lateral model boundaries and at the sea surface. Output from this integration indicates that the precipitation reaches its maximum value on the northwestern slope of the AP, where the upward motion in the atmosphere is largest. Uplift occurs upstream of the barrier, affecting the precipitation distribution over sea. The effect of the barrier on the precipitation distribution over the Bellingshausen Sea might have important implications for the ocean circulation in this region. The mean precipitation over the grounded ice of the AP (1.20 m water eq yr À1 ) is 6 times larger than the mean value over all the grounded ice of Antarctica. Our estimates for the surface sublimation and wind transport of snow over the grounding line toward the sea are 9% and 6 ± 1% of the precipitation, respectively. In situ data of the wind distribution at three coastal sites located on the northern, eastern, and western sides of the AP are used to evaluate the modeled wind field, which is important for the snow drift calculations. For two of the three sites considered, the prevailing wind direction and bimodal wind distribution are correctly represented by the model. The calculated distribution of accumulation and ablation due to snow drift shows a complex pattern. The wind removes snow from the spine of the AP, where the near-surface flow field diverges, whereas deposition occurs mainly on the eastern slopes, where the near-surface flow field converges. An intercomparison between two 7-year integrations at different horizontal resolution (Dx = 14 km and Dx = 55 km) shows that the precipitation on the northwestern slope is very sensitive to the model resolution: In the Dx = 14 km integration, precipitation on the northwestern slope is higher than in Dx = 55 km because of higher vertical velocities, resulting in a 35% increase in average precipitation over the grounded ice of the AP.
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