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Science-based initiatives generate particular changes towards sustainable development. But why and how does this work? Theories of change (ToCs) can help in understanding the theoretical assumptions and modes of knowledge production associated with these initiatives: ToCs trigger debate among the stakeholders and evaluators of an initiative regarding the hypothesized and observed effects of actions as well as regarding underlying assumptions about how change happens. Therefore, they can strengthen the effectiveness of research, practice, and education in sustainability science.

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In Uganda, upgrading smallholder agriculture is a necessary step to achieve the interlinked sustainable development goals of hunger eradication, poverty reduction and land degradation neutrality. However, targeting the right restoration practices and estimate their cost-benefit at the national scale is difficult given the highly contextual nature of restoration practices and the diversity of small-scale interventions to be adopted. By analysing the context-specific outcomes of 82 successful case studies on different Sustainable Land and Water Management (SLWM) in Uganda, we estimated that out-scaling of existing successful practices to 75% of agricultural land would require a one-time investment of US$ 4.4 billion from smallholders. Our results show that, besides the many social and environmental benefit commonly associated to SLWM, a wide outscale of SLWM could generate US$ 4.7 billion every year, once the practices are fully operational. Our context-specific estimates highlight the profitability of investing in smallholder farming to achieve the SDGs in Uganda, with geographical differences coming from specific social-ecological conditions. This study can guide sustainable intensification development by targeting the most suitable SLWM practices and plan for adequate financial support from government, investors and international development aids to smallholder farming.

One of the core challenges to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) is to spatially identify, and strategically prioritise, the areas to implement actions to avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation. To achieve this, a tool for a participatory and data‐driven assessment considering both the biophysical, and socio‐economic dimensions of land degradation across scales was developed for Ecuador. In this paper, we present the methodology and results obtained, including the spatially explicit interactive tool developed to integrate indicators that support the scaling‐up of sustainable land management (SLM). The process involved specialists from various national and international institutions, as well as decision makers from the public sector and other relevant stakeholders. Cloud computing allowed the integration of five main sources of data: (1) the results of a participatory land degradation assessment based on an expert knowledge questionnaire following the Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) and World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) methodology; (2) the Hand‐in‐Hand Initiative Ecuador typology maps based on poverty and estimated agricultural potential and efficiency scores from household surveys; (3) National data sets on land cover and land use, soil properties, and hydro climatic indicators; (4) global satellite‐derived LDN indicators, such as Land Productivity Dynamics; and (5) Documented SLM practices from WOCAT Global SLM Database. The tool is based on a Google Earth Engine application and allows decision makers to easily compare results and obtain statistics at different spatial scales and landscapes, including Land Use Systems delimited by experts. It also includes a multi‐criteria module to identify areas with specific characteristics to prioritise different types of interventions to achieve the country's LDN targets. Convergence of local and global evidence allowed the identification of hotspots of degradation as well as areas of false positives/negatives ‐ if only global or remote sensing indicators were considered. The participatory process contributed to strengthening multi‐sector cooperation mechanisms and to guaranteeing ownership of the tool and the results. The system will support Ecuador's efforts to monitor and report progress towards LDN to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The system's code is shared as a repository at Earth Engine and can be adapted to and used by other countries and regions.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.